Over 2 lakh lives lost, 6.7 million became refugees in 2024: Can diplomatic efforts bring peace in the New Year?

2024 year-ender: The Russia-Ukraine war will enter its fourth year in February 2025. The conflict has so far resulted in more than 200,000 deaths, according to reports. As many as 6.7 million people have become refugees, including 400,000 who crossed into Europe seeking safety between January and August this year, according to the United Nations.

There seems to be no end in sight in tensions in the Middle East, too. Beginning in late September, intensified Israeli airstrikes targeted many towns across Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the displacement of nearly 900,000 people within the country.

A year of intensified Israel- Palestine conflict following the Hamas assault in October 2023 on Israel killed more than 1,000 people and triggered retaliation.

In December, an offensive launched by armed groups led to the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, sparking hopes for an end to the world’s largest displacement crisis.

2024 year of international conflicts

2024 saw a series of international conflicts posing challenges to geopolitics. The repercussions were felt beyond their immediate regions, shaping diplomatic relations and strategic priorities across the world.

The new and ongoing wars have resulted in about 2,33,000 deaths in 2024, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a non-profit. Half of this number comes primarily from three countries: Ukraine, Palestine, and Myanmar.

Previously, Afghanistan used to account for a major proportion of conflict-related deaths, more so before Taliban’s takeover of the government 2021. However, causalities from Ukraine and Palestine have made up a substantial share of the death toll in the last two years. Also, following a military coup that overthrew the government in 2021, Myanmar also contributed to fatalities in last few years.

India's Message for Global Peace

India’s message to the international community was that reforms in global institutions are essential for global peace and development. “Reform is the key to relevance... Global action must match global ambition,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his address to the UN’s Summit of the Future, in September this year

Modi’s call for change from the UNGA lectern came amid ongoing global conflicts, including the Ukraine war entering its third year, the Israel-Hamas war, and escalating global threats like terrorism, climate crises, economic inequality, and attacks on women’s rights.

Amid these global challenges, India consistently advocated dialogue and diplomacy to arrive at solutions and resolve conflicts. When Modi met Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Summit of the Future, he reiterated India's willingness to play a constructive role in the quest for a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasised Modi's commitment to finding a way forward and contributing in any way possible to a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Modi-Zelenskyy meeting was the third in about as many months. Modi met the Ukrainian leader in Kyiv in August, just weeks after he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July. In June, Modi held a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Italy.

Modi also held bilateral talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, expressing concern over the Gaza crisis and advocating a two-state solution for sustainable peace in the region.

The PM also met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia in October amidst heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. He emphasised the need for dialogue and diplomacy to de-escalate tensions in the volatile region.

Hope in 2025?

With the coming year bringing a new dimension to Middle East politics and the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, will the situation return to normal in the Middle East?

In his victory speech on November 6, 2024, Trump vowed to make efforts to end wars around the world. However, he did not particularly emphasise where this policy will be directed, but according to geopolitical experts, Ukraine and Israel will most likely be the focus areas of Trump 2.0.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said a ceasefire with Hezbollah and Hamas does not mean the end of Israel's wars.

"The hundred years' Israel-Palestine conflict will only end when Israel ends its occupation of Palestinian lands and grants its neighbors the right of self-determination," Fawaz A Gerges, a Professor of International Relations, London School of Economics was quoted as saying by Newsweek

In recent weeks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled a willingness to enter a new phase of his conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "If we want to stop the hot phase of the war," Zelenskyy said in an interview with the UK's Sky News.

"We need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control" so that Putin would be prevented from capturing more disputed land. Ukrainian territory currently under Russian control would then be returned "in a diplomatic way," he said.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) updated projections for Ukraine outline two scenarios regarding Russia’s ongoing war, according to The Kyiv Independent.

The baseline scenario assumes the war will end by late 2025, while the downside scenario predicts it will continue until mid-2026, significantly affecting economic stability.

(With PTI inputs)