WTC final qualification scenarios: Who joins South Africa in summit clash if India, Australia finish with identical PCT?

India hit a major roadblock in their race for the World Test Championship (WTC) final when they lost the fourth Test against Australia in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) in Melbourne by 184 runs on Monday. With South Africa already qualified, Australia are now a step closer to their second consecutive WTC final after the Melbourne win.

Following the win, Australia are currently placed second with 118 points and a point percentage (PCT) of 61.46. 

India are ranked one spot below with 114 points and a PCT of 52.78. But is there a chance that both India and Australia finish on the same points and PCT at the end of the current WTC cycle? The answer is YES.

WTC 2023-25 standings - all scenarios

• Defending champions Australia can finish on 154 points out of a possible 228 if they win their remaining three Tests (1 vs India, 2 vs Sri Lanka). A win out of three matches will guarantee Australia a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord's in 2025 as the second-best team.
• If India beats Australia in the final Test in Sydney and Sri Lanka wins 2-0 against Australia, then Rohit Sharma's men will finish above the Aussies at second spot in the WTC points table and face South Africa in next year's grand finale.

What happens if India, Australia finish on same PCT, points?

• Interestingly, both Australia and India can finish on the same points and PCT. In that case, India will need to beat Australia in Sydney, and the Sri Lanka vs Australia series end in a 0-0 draw. Then, both India and Australia will finish their WTC 2023-25 cycle with 126 points each.
• If both India and Australia finish on level points, their PCTs will also be the same, at 55.26. The team winning the most series during the cycle will decide the second finalist to join South Africa in the final.
• Interestingly, both India and Australia have won the same number of series so far (three wins each), with the side winning the higher percentage of points in away matches, making it to the summit clash.

India's BGT 2024-25 win hopes in clouds

After losing at the MCG for the first time in 13 years, India can't win the BGT this time, unlike the previous two occasions Down Under. But they can retain the title if Rohit and Co win the final Test in Sydney, starting from January 3. 

A win in Sydney will also help India stay alive in the race for the WTC final at Lord’s from June 11 to 15 next year.