WTC 2025: South Africa first to final – India's qualification scenarios explained

Amid the Temba Bavuma-led South Africa, which made history by becoming the first team to qualify for the World Test Championship 2025 finals after beating Shan Masood-led Pakistan in the first Test at the Centurion, it has become a challenge for both India and Australia to fix their spot as second finalist.

Following this win, South Africa have fixed their spot as the first finalist and will play against the second team at the Lord's from 11 June 2025.

What do the WTC points say?

According to the WTC 2025 charts, South Africa now have the highest Points Percentage System (PCT) of 66.67 and leads among the nine top cricket-playing nations. They also have 88 points. In the 11 Tests played in the WTC cycle, South Africa has won 7 matches and lost 3, while one resulted in a draw.

They are followed by Australia who have a PCT of 58.89 and 106 points in total. The Oz played 15 matches in the current WTC cycle and won 9 of then, losing 4 and 2 ended in a draw.

In the third position are India, who have a PCT of 55.88 and 114 points. They played 17 Tests, wherein they won 9, lost 6, and 2 resulted in a draw.

What must India and Australia do to qualify for the WTC final?

After the drawn Test in Brisbane, Rohit Sharma-led Team India's points percentage slipped from 57.29 to 55.88.

On the WTC standing, eight points currently separate Australia and India. After the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne, India have only one game left, while for Australia, they will have three matches left – one against India and two against Sri Lanka.

India and Australia's WTC final scenarios:

In case India win MCG Test but draw the series 2-2 with Australia's win in Sydney, India will end their WTC cycle with a total of 126 points and a 55.26 PCT.

On the contrary, Australia can reach the finals if they draw the series or at least one win Test in Sri Lanka.

In the second scenario, if India manage to draw the MCG test and win the Sydney test, they will finish cycle on 130 points with a 57.01 PCT. Then Australia will have to Sri Lanka 2-0 to qualify for the WTC final.

A third scenario states that if India manage to draw both Tests against Australia in Melbourne and Sydney, they would finish the cycle with 122 points and a 53.50 PCT. For Australia to qualify for the WTC finals, they will have to beat Sri Lanka at least in one match.

Here's updated WTC standings:

South Africa (Q) (PCT 66.67)

Australia (PCT 58.89)

India (PCT 55.88)

New Zealand (PCT 48.21)

Sri Lanka (PCT 45.45)

England (PCT 43.18)

Pakistan (PCT 30.30)

Bangladesh (PCT 31.25)

West Indies (PCT 24.24)