Indo-Pacific security: India mustn’t let Diego Garcia fall off its map

In any word association test, ‘Diego’ would cue the name of football legend Maradona. But for elderly Indians, it recalls Diego Garcia, a geopolitical bugbear of the Cold War era, when India wanted the US to withdraw its forces from an air-base on a small island by that name in the Indian Ocean. 

About 2,000km south-west of Kanyakumari, it was too close for comfort. As a nuclear power now with a broad US partnership, India no longer sees it as a threat. No wonder it has faded from public memory. 

Globally, though, it has sprung back into the news. It was part of recent US-UK talks at the White House, with President Donald Trump appearing to nod along with London’s plan for its status. “They’re talking about a very long-term, powerful lease, a very strong lease... about 140 years, actually,” said Trump, seated beside the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, “It’s a long time. I think we’ll be inclined to go along with your country.” 

Also Read: Mauritius offers India a gateway for strategic cooperation with Africa

Given today’s geopolitical flux, we in India need to track what’s underway.

While the timeline of what’s on offer seems to have impressed Trump, we await a haze to lift over how Diego Garcia fits into his world view. The long ‘lease’ he referred to would probably be a sub-lease for the island’s use. This 30-sq-km patch of land is part of the Chagos Archipelago, which Britain had once governed as part of a colony that included Mauritius, but retained after the latter’s freedom in 1968. 

Having paid Port Louis a reported sum of £3 million to cede its claim to those atolls, London’s purpose of retention was clear once it evicted Diego Garcia’s folks and leased it to the US for a base. Located in the middle of the Indian Ocean, it has since been used by the Pentagon for wars in West Asia. 

In 2019, however, a hitch arose. The International Court of Justice ruled that the former colony’s split-up was illegal. Last October, the UK struck an interim deal that would give Mauritius sovereignty over Chagos and take Diego Garcia on a 99-year lease from Port Louis. The island could then remain a US base with the UK as its sub-lessor. That Trump sounds fine with such an arrangement has been a surprise.

Also Read: China’s latest naval exercises have shown how far it can project power

Security hawks in the West—or what’s left of it—worry that Mauritian ties with Beijing may give China a chance to snoop around Diego Garcia. Given its geo-strategic location, what India must assess is the depth of US interest in two pre-Trump ideas: first, that of the base in itself, and second, the Quad’s role as a bulwark for a scenario in which China tries to exert control over key trade routes of the Indo-Pacific.

With an Asian Century arising, the group’s implicit aim is to secure the future of democracy. Quad members India, Australia, Japan and the US, each with a stake in a world that’s free and open, have a summit coming up this year. Yet, a haze of uncertainty hovers over what Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda may mean for the Quad. 

So far, his global moves suggest he has little time for lofty ideals and plenty for business deals. Even in the East, the balance of power could plausibly tilt in favour of a player armed with the biggest ‘cards,’ defined in either military or industrial terms. 

Also Read: The Oval Office showdown left Putin holding a trump card in the Ukraine War

Let’s face it, America’s trade war with China doesn’t rule out a pact with it. Should signs of the Quad being scuttled emerge, we must ensure that our ocean-front is not left exposed. Like in a game of Go, a good move might well be to engage the UK, US and Mauritius in talks over sharing Diego Garcia as a base. Else, we go for a counter-base in equatorial waters.