Who's to blame for Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan — Russia, bird or weather? Theories run amok

Several theories about the possible reasons for the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash were doing the rounds on Thursday. As many as 38 people were reportedly killed in the plane crash near Kazakhstan's Aktau city on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Kazakh Ministry of Emergency Situations reported, “29 survivors, including three children, have been hospitalised.”

The Azerbaijan Airlines plane, carrying 62 passengers and five crew members on board, crashed after being forced to make an emergency landing about three kilometres from Aktau. The Embraer 190 aircraft was en route from Azerbaijan's capital, Baku, to Grozny, a Russian city in the North Caucasus.

The Flight Radar website showed the plane deviating from its normal route, crossing the Caspian Sea and then circling over the area where it eventually crashed near Aktau.

The “black box” from the crashed passenger plane, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL), was recovered near Aktau on December 25, local media reported.

A day after the crash, officials and social media users made several claims about the reasons behind the crash. Some of those theories included:

1. Bird strike

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said in a statement that preliminary information suggested the pilots decided to make an emergency landing after a bird strike. Aktau is located on the opposite shore of the Caspian Sea from Azerbaijan and Russia.

Moreover, Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) reportedly told Azerbaijan's state news agency, Azertac and Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency that preliminary findings pointed to a collision with birds as the cause of the crash.

2. Oxygen tank exploded

Kazakh media said that an oxygen tank on board the Azerbaijan Airlines plane exploded after a bird strike before the deadly crash. They claimed that flyers had started to fall unconscious before the flight crashed.

3. Weather, heavy fog

Speaking at a news conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

Meanwhile, Al Jazeera cited preliminary reports as stating that the plane requested to land at an alternative airport before the accident due to heavy fog in Grozny.

Kadyrov Grozny International Airport claimed that thick fog was to blame for the airplane's rerouting, the Moscow Times reported.

4. Russia shot down plane?

The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, said on Telegram that the plane was reportedly shot down by a Russian air defense system.

"Russia was supposed to close the airspace over Grozny but did not do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and sent to Kazakhstan instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny and saving people's lives," Kovalenko said.

However, none of these claims have yet been proven right. The cause of the deadly crash is still being ascertained.

Probe begins

The State Commission, established under the directives of President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to investigate the causes of the plane crash, convened its meeting on Wednesday, local reports stated.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan Airlines said its flights on the Baku-Grozny-Baku and Baku-Makhachkala-Baku routes have been suspended until the investigation is completed. Flights to other AZAL destinations are operating according to the regular schedule.

(With inputs from agencies)