Who could be the next Canada Prime Minister after Justin Trudeau resigns? Pierre Poilievre emerging as front-runner

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on January 6, 2025, officially announced he will resign, following months of political turmoil, declining approval ratings, and increasing internal party division. Trudeau, who has been in power since 2015, stated that he will step down once the Liberal Party elects a new leader. The leadership race for his successor will be a "robust, nationwide competitive process," as Trudeau explained.

Canada’s upcoming Federal election

Canada's next federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 20, 2025. In this election, the party that secures the most seats in the House of Commons will form the government, with the leader of that party becoming the next prime minister.

Who could be the next Canada Prime Minister after Justin Trudeau resigns?

Trudeau’s decision to resign has intensified speculation on who will succeed him as the leader of Canada, especially as the Liberal Party prepares for a leadership transition.

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Pierre Poilievre: The leading contender

According to betting market, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is currently the front-runner to replace Trudeau as Canada's next prime minister. Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that correctly forecasted Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, has given Poilievre a 92 percent chance of becoming Canada’s next leader after the upcoming election.

Poilievre's popularity has surged in recent months, making him the favorite to lead Canada following Trudeau’s resignation and the impending leadership contest within the Liberal Party.

Other potential candidates

While Poilievre leads the prediction markets, other figures are also being considered as potential candidates to succeed Trudeau.

Chrystia Freeland, who resigned as finance minister from Trudeau’s Cabinet in December 2024, is viewed as a possible contender to replace him as the leader of the Liberal Party. However, Polymarket has given Freeland a relatively low 5 percent chance of becoming the next prime minister.

Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), which has supported Trudeau’s minority government, is considered another possibility. However, Singh's chances of becoming prime minister remain slim, with Polymarket assigning him just a 2 percent probability.

Political landscape shifting

Trudeau's decision to resign has shifted the political landscape in Canada, with many now speculating about the future of the Liberal Party and the potential outcomes of the 2025 federal election. Poilievre’s high chances of becoming the next prime minister mark a notable shift toward the Conservative Party, while the Liberal Party faces internal challenges, including the ongoing leadership race.

Political crisis and pressure to step down

Trudeau's decision to step down comes after increasing pressure from within his party and from public opinion, which has seen a significant dip in recent months. His leadership has faced mounting challenges, including internal divisions and dissatisfaction with his handling of key issues. Several top Liberal allies have openly urged him to step down, marking a critical moment in his political career.

While Trudeau did not provide a clear timeline for his departure, he confirmed that he would remain in office as a caretaker prime minister until the leadership race concludes.

Trudeau’s last months in office and trade war concerns

Trudeau's resignation comes at a significant moment in international politics. He will remain in office through the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. The proposed tariffs could severely impact Canada's economy, and Trudeau will be tasked with managing the country's response to the new administration's trade policies. He has vowed to retaliate against these tariffs in defense of Canada's economic interests.

Impact on Canada’s political landscape

With Trudeau stepping down, the Liberal Party will be thrust into a leadership race, which could reshape Canada's political future. The upcoming selection process will be closely watched, as the new leader will have to navigate a delicate political landscape, including managing relations with the incoming US administration and addressing domestic concerns like healthcare, housing, and the economy.

As Canada prepares for a changing political landscape, the resignation of one of the country's longest-serving prime ministers marks the end of an era and sets the stage for a new chapter in Canadian leadership.