A razor-thin house majority creates headaches for republicans

WASHINGTON—They won, but barely.

Republicans held on to control of the House of Representatives in November by one of the thinnest margins in the country’s history—even smaller than in the current Congress—a result that will have them walking a tightrope again for the next two years. The drama starts next week when the party tries to elect a new speaker on the first day of the new session, with fresh grumblings about leadership setting the stage for an unpredictable vote.

Republicans won 220 seats to Democrats’ 215. One planned vacancy—that of former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was elected to another term but said he won’t take office—will reduce Republicans to 219 when lawmakers reconvene on Jan. 3. Two resignations of lawmakers set to join the Trump administration—Reps. Elise Stefanik and Mike Waltz—will temporarily reduce GOP numbers to 217 later in January before special elections are held. President-elect Donald Trump starts his second term on Jan. 20.

While Republicans will have full control of Congress and the White House, the wafer-thin cushion in the House means any small handful of Republican defectors could trip up the GOP agenda by holding out for their leaders or their own terms. As the past two years have shown, it also means that a run of bad luck for Republicans—such as health setbacks or a string of resignations—could eat into the margin.

“We know how to work with a small majority; that’s our custom now,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) told reporters earlier this month. “This is a team effort and we’ve got to all row in the same direction.”

At the extreme, Republicans could surrender the majority by attrition before the next election, something that actually happened in 1931, when Republicans lost a two-seat majority midway through then-President Herbert Hoover’s term.

The tight math means for the early months of Trump’s presidency, Republicans may not be able to afford more than one “no” vote, a daunting task for party leaders in a conference that often features intraparty brawls and is trying to pass an ambitious tax and immigration agenda.

“I don’t think that there’s any reason to believe that the Republican membership is completely unified on lots of issues,” said Andy Ballard, an assistant professor of political science at Florida State University.

The first test of the majority’s alignment will be when the House picks a speaker—current Johnson is seeking re-election—and passes a rules package. Both require a majority of the full House.

In early 2023, when Republicans held 222 seats to Democrats’ 212, the chamber took four days and 15 ballots to elect a speaker due to opposition to Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) from some hard-line Republicans. In exchange for the holdouts’ support, McCarthy was forced to make concessions, including a new rule that empowered any single lawmaker to force a vote on ousting the speaker. Critics took another run at McCarthy later that year, with Gaetz engineering his removal, joined by Democrats.

Johnson now faces his own challenges to keep the speakership, after a wrenching fight earlier this month over a year-end government funding bill. Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) said he won’t support Johnson, and other House Republicans have said they want to possibly look at other candidates. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R., Ind.) said that she would stop caucusing with the GOP “until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing.”

“It’s important for us to stay calm, stay present at all times, because the margin is going to be extremely narrow during the first days of the new administration,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) on MSNBC.

The experience of the past two years shows how volatile thin majorities can be. After starting 2023 with a 10-seat margin in the House, Republicans saw their majority temporarily whittled away to a four-seat margin this past spring before expanding again when seats were filled. Republicans ended up with an eight-seat advantage, at 219-211 advantage.

A thin majority makes for a lot of guesswork. Members of Congress regularly miss votes for an array of reasons including illness, travel and other obligations.

In February, Republicans initially failed in their effort to impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as a protest over President Biden’s immigration record.

Rep. Al Green (D., Texas), recovering from emergency abdominal surgery, surprised Republicans by arriving to vote in a wheelchair still in pain and wearing hospital-issued anti-slip socks. He cast the final opposing vote to sink the effort. One week later, Republicans succeeded in impeaching Mayorkas after House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R., La.), returned to the Hill following cancer treatments.

This Congress, both parties can expect further resignations and health issues.

“Republicans do have a math problem, but they shouldn’t lose a majority,” said Erin Covey, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, noting that multiple vacancies would have to occur in a short time span to flip the chamber even temporarily.

Katy Stech Ferek contributed to this article.

Write to Xavier Martinez at xavier.martinez@wsj.com