Why key NDA allies TDP and JD (U), both old-fashioned coalition builders, have decided to kowtow to PM Modi

When the Joint Committee of Parliament scrutinising the Waqf (Amendment) Bill adopted its report and the amended version of the proposed law with a majority vote, it became clear that coalition politics in the country had turned a new leaf. Far from being confrontational, alliances are now based on an unprecedented degree of co-option.

While the opposition ire on the bill is understandable, what has surprised many is the complete acquiescence of two of the BJP’s principal allies, the 18-strong TDP from Andhra Pradesh and 12-member Lok Sabha squad of JD (U) from Bihar, once leading practitioners of coalition politics, with strong Muslim constituencies to attend to.

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Says Shivanand Tiwary, once a JD(U) MP but now with the RJD. "The two allies have surrendered. That is clear. Why they have done so, I am not able to say. I suppose for Nitish (Kumar), how many times can he switch sides. He can’t go back to the RJD again.’’

Vinod Tawde, BJP’s national general secretary and Bihar’s party in-charge and a key go-between the two sides, expressed confidence in the stability and continuity of the JD (U)-led NDA government in Bihar, amid rumours suggesting that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar might once again join the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.

The case of Andhra Pradesh, BJP’s strongest ally, is equally interesting. Like on other issues, TDP strongman and Chief Minister Chandra Babu Naidu, has backed the BJP strongly, if need be.

Also Read: Govt sends Waqf Amendment Bill 2024 to Joint Parliamentary Committee for wider scrutiny amid opposition uproar

Dynastic succession plan

So, what is holding the two back from expressing their views on subjects, once closest to their hearts? Political analyst Amitabh Tewari offers an explanation. "The two NDA allies worth the name are TDP and JD(U). Messrs Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu are in the autumn of their careers. For promoting their sons, they need the BJP to ensure that the succession is concluded smoothly. They know that only the BJP and Narendra Modi can guarantee this transition.”

Just recently, Hyderabad was rife with rumours about Naidu’s successor, his son and minister Nara Lokesh, getting a promotion. Putting to rest speculation, TDP leaders have made it clear that party boss Chandrababu Naidu will remain the CM as long as the NDA coalition continues, with Jana Sena Party (JSP) President Pawan Kalyan serving as his deputy for the full term. The demands for his son's elevation have been quelled – for now.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar’s two-word advice to Narendra Modi at NDA meeting: ‘Jaldi Kijiye’

Nitish Kumar’s case is opaque. The recent public appeal by Nishant Kumar, his son, urging voters to support his father in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, has fuelled speculation about his entry into politics. While this could be just one more dynastic succession plan, it also underscores a larger issue facing regional parties — their inability to create second-rung leadership beyond family lines.

On Kumar’s part, once hailed as a pragmatic politician, it could well be an attempt to secure a political legacy at a time when JD(U)’s poor performance in consecutive assembly elections and BJP’s growing strength have presented new challenges.

The BJP, however, believes that it is their strong leadership, which is making a difference. Says Seshadri Chari, a member of the national executive committee of the BJP: "The dynamics of politics have changed. During Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time, three states were divided — UP, Bihar and MP - and all three had non-NDA governments. So, it is not as if coalition politics has changed. But it is also true that political parties can no longer afford to ignore the larger Hindu sentiment.”

Coupled with this is the political grapevine, which suggests that BJP leaders are in touch with TDP and JD (U) MPs. BJP’s propensity to `bring’ legislators from other parties into its fold, is hardly a state secret.

One Nation One Poll

The Waqf bill has paved the way for the other contentious legislation, One Nation One Poll, which is also with the Joint Committee of Parliament. The fate of similar bills, too, hangs in the balance. Despite being outvoted by small numbers, as in the case of Waqf, a no-show by key NDA allies has helped the BJP win its case.

Says former Union minister and Congress leader Salman Khurshid, "It is deeply distressing the way in which the Waqf bill was passed by the JPC. I haven’t seen the draft to know the damage that JPC has done, but this govt is pushing down legislation using brute force, even as it does not have a brute majority.’’

Clearly, those who predicted that the 63-seat loss in the Lok Sabha would have tempered down the ruling BJP’s instincts in an unprecedented third term, need to go back to the drawing board once more.