Manipur: Is President's rule likely? Why did CM Biren Singh resign? What we know so far

Manipur: Biren Singh resigned as the Chief Minister of strife-torn Manipur on Sunday, February 9. Singh tendered his resignation to Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla at the Raj Bhavan around 5:30 p.m. on Sunday. His resignation came as the simmering ethnic violence in the northeastern state, which showed no signs of abating, claimed hundreds of lives in the past two years.

Singh became the chief minister of the northeastern state for the first time in 2017.

What did Biren Singh said in his resignation letter?

In his resignation letter to Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, Biren Singh said, “It has been an honor to serve the people of Manipur thus far. I am extremely grateful to the central government for timely actions, interventions, developmental work and implementation of various projects for safeguarding the interest of every single Manipuri.”

Singh said the "most important ones of them" were:

i) To maintain the territorial integrity of Manipur which has a rich and diverse civilizational history over thousands of years.

ii) To crack down on border infiltration and to formulate policy for the deportation of the illegal immigrants.

iii) To continue the fight against drugs and narco terrorism.

iv) To continue the stringent and fool-proof revised mechanism of FMR with the biometric being stringently applied.

v) Time bound and faster border which is underway. Kindly, accept my resignation and oblige.

Singh requested that the "central government...to continue with the same."

Were MLAs losing faith in Biren Singh?

1. Biren Singh was losing support of MLAs:  A source told news agency PTI that Singh was losing support among BJP MLAs, many of whom met party leaders in Delhi to convey their unhappiness with his continuation.

However, BJP Manipur chief A Sharda Devi said Biren "resigned keeping in mind the future of the state." She said there were no differences among the BJP legislators.

"He has resigned for the people of the state...The CM wants peace in the state and he has requested the Centre to provide safety to the people of the state," Devi said on Sunday.

2. Opposition seeks no-confidence motion: The Opposition had been demanding Biren's resignation for allegedly failing to curb the ongoing ethnic violence in the state. The issue of the violence in Manipur also triggered a ruckus in Parliament in 2023 and 2024.

Biren resigned days after Manipur Congress president Keisham Meghachandra said the party would move a no-confidence motion against the N Biren Singh government in the state assembly.

In a post on X, Meghachandra said, "Brahmastra Missile will surely hit one of the Double Engine! Congress party set to move No Confidence Motion anytime soon".

The Opposition also said Prime Minister Narendra Modi must visit strife-torn Manipur to review the situation. On February 6 this year, Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Derek O'Brien said PM Modi's speech in the Rajya Sabha did not mention several crucial issues, including the situation in Manipur.

What's happening in Manipur?

Manipur has been witnessing intense clashes between valley-based Meiteis and Kuki-Zo groups. As tensions escalated, the state saw several internet suspensions and curfews. Several videos circulated on social media showed burnt houses. A video showed men sexually harassing and parading half-naked women in a Manipur district trigerred widespread outrage.

More than 250 people were killed and thousands rendered homeless in ethnic clashes between Meiteis and Kuki-Zo groups since May 3, 2023. The Kuki's are dominant in the hill districts, news agency PTI reported.

This violence was triggered by a dispute over an affirmative action measure, specifically the Meitei community's demand for Scheduled Tribe status, which sparked protests and clashes.

A march organised by the All Tribal Students' Union Manipur (ATSUM) on May 3, 2023, to oppose this demand, led to confrontations and the escalation of violence.

On May 4, 2023, boxer and former Rajya Sabha MP MC Mary Kom appealed to the state and central government to take steps for the situation and maintain peace and security in the state. "It is unfortunate that some people lost their family members in this violence," she had said in a video message.

Biren Singh had role in Manipur violence?

Earlier, a controversy erupted after the Supreme Court sought a sealed-cover forensic report on the authenticity of leaked audio clips alleging the role of Singh in the ethnic violence.

The tapes reportedly included conversations where Biren Singh allegedly suggested that Meitei groups were allowed to loot arms and ammunition from the state government during the unrest, which has so far claimed 250 lives, PTI reported.

The Kuki Organisation for Human Rights Trust (KOHUR), represented by advocate Prashant Bhushan, sought a court-monitored SIT probe into the alleged role of the chief minister in the ethnic violence.

The Kuki organisation's plea alleged the chief minister of Manipur was instrumental in "inciting, organising and thereafter centrally orchestrating the large-scale murder, destruction and other forms of violence against the Kuki dominated areas in Manipur".

Bhushan, however, termed the contents of the audio leaks a "very serious matter" and said in the clips the chief minister was purportedly saying that Meitei groups were allowed to loot arms and ammunition of the state government.

What's next for Manipur? Is President's rule in offing?

Manipur, which continues to reel under violence and conflict, may get a new chief minister. However, speculation is rife that President's rule may also be imposed in the state.

The Manipur governor accepted the resignation of Biren Singh along with his council of ministers, but requested that he continue in office until alternative arrangements are made.

The party is expected to convene meetings with top leaders to finalise the name of the next Chief Minister, Republic TV reported.

BJP sources expressed hope that Biren Singh's resignation will help boost the efforts being made by the Centre to broker peace between the two main ethnic communities in the state.

The Manipur Assembly Budget session has been suspended. The state assembly session was scheduled to begin on February 10.

Officials reportedly confirmed that the session will resume once a new Chief Minister is appointed, with sources indicating that an announcement could come as early as Monday.

When is the President's Rule imposed?

The president's rule can be imposed as per Article 356 of the Constitution. This provision gives the President of India the power to impose this rule on a state on the advice of the Union Council of Ministers.

The Article 356 reads, "Where any State has failed to comply with, or to give effect to, any directions given in the exercise of the executive power of the Union under any of the provisions of this Constitution, it shall be lawful for the President to hold that a situation has arisen in which the Government of the State cannot be carried on in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution."

According to a Business Standard report, there are some conditions that the President has to consider before imposing the rule:

a) If the President is satisfied that a situation has arisen in which the governance of the state cannot be carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.

b) The state government is unable to elect a leader as chief minister within a time prescribed by the Governor of that state.

c) There's a breakdown of a coalition leading to the chief minister enjoying only minority support in the House, and if the CM fails to prove a majority in the given period of time.

d) Loss of majority in the Assembly due to a vote of no-confidence in the House.

e) Elections postponed on account of situations like natural disasters, war or epidemic.

What did Congress leaders suggest

Congress MP Imran Masood lashed out at Biren Singh on Sunday, accusing him of "creating divide between two communities" while referring to Manipur Violence.

"He is resigning today after the death of so many people, after creating a divide between two communities. Now, the Central Govt needs to interfere and work to stabilise the situation there. Centre should work as a bridge between the two communities and peace should be established there," Masood said.

What Manipur Assembly looked like before Biren's resignation

The Congress has five MLAs in the 60-member Manipur Assembly. The NPP, another opposition party, has seven legislators.

The BJP has 32 MLAs and also the support of five Naga People's Front MLAs and six MLAs of JD(U).

There are three Independent MLAs and two legislators of the Kuki Peoples' Alliance.