IMD predicts above-normal cumulative rainfall during monsoon, rules out El Nino conditions

Amid the ongoing trade turmoil and talk of a global recession, there are positive reports from India. For the second year in a row, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been forecasting above-normal rains during the coming monsoon season in the country.

Good rainfall is important for India's agricultural production, which not only gives a fillip to the agrarian economy but also percolates down to building strong rural demand, which positively impacts a host of sectors, such as fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and automobiles, and builds growth momentum in the economy.

According to IMD, India is expected to receive an above-normal monsoon from June to September this year. The outlook, which comes amid reports of above-normal temperatures across several parts of the country, has come as a respite to farmers and policymakers.

"The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%," IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said.

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for 1971-2020 was 87 cm.

The above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India, and South Peninsular India, where below-normal rain is expected.

ENSO prevailing

According to IMD, Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However, the atmospheric circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate model forecasts indicate that the Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue during the monsoon season.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast indicate that the Neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season.

The monsoon season is crucial for India as it delivers nearly 70% of its annual rainfall. However, the agriculture sector remains highly vulnerable to weather variability, with only about 55% of the net sowing area receiving water from the irrigation network, while the rest is dependent upon monsoon rains.

A substantial portion of agricultural land relies on rain-fed systems, making it especially susceptible to fluctuations in precipitation. In such a scenario, above-normal monsoon rainfall will boost the sowing of kharif crops such as rice, pulses, maize and soybean.

"Forecast of normal/above normal LPA of SW monsoon is good news for farmers & rural economy. The farmers suffered because of pre-monsoon weather conditions—high temperatures, heavy rains with storms resulted in a loss of rabi crops, specifically wheat, mustard & grams—normal monsoon is a great respite as it is the main driver of crop productivity and input costs in rainfed areas," said Prof. Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and ex-member of UP planning commission.

Projected to rise

As per official estimates from the statistics ministry released in February, farm output is projected to have grown by 4.6% in FY25, up from 2.7% in the year before, as the year benefited from normal monsoon showers and was marked by the absence of adverse weather.

Pushan Sharma, director, research, Crisil Intelligence, said, "It would boost rural sentiments in the upcoming season. Rainfall is classified normal when it is in the range of 96% to 104% of normal, hence the current forecast is slightly above the normal mark.” He further said that in the past, years with a slightly above normal monsoon tend to favour not just the kharif planting season but also bodes well for the reservoir level and, therefore, the rabi season as well. “This is expected to have a positive bearing on rural consumption. Furthermore, higher prices for key crops like paddy, maize, and cotton, fuelled by eased export restrictions and ethanol industry demand, are likely to incentivize farmers to expand acreages under these crops," he said.

Oilseeds such as soybean may also gain traction. In addition to these crops, the outlook is also favourable for horticulture crops, largely tomatoes and onions, where acreages are expected to increase, further contributing to the positive agricultural outlook for kharif 2025.

However, the temporal distribution of rainfall remains a major monitorable. Any excessive rainfall during critical stages of the crop cycle, such as sowing, maturation, and harvesting, may cause crop damage and yield losses, particularly for crops like pulses, cotton, and maize, he added.

Good rainfall will also help to bring down food inflation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held from 7 to 9 April, said that adverse weather events and the rise in international agricultural commodity prices pose risks to food inflation. CPI (Consumer Price Index) headline inflation declined by a cumulative 1.6 percentage points during January-February 2025, from 5.2% in December 2024 to a low of 3.6% in February 2025, according to RBI.

"Concerns on lingering global market uncertainties and recurrence of adverse weather-related supply disruptions pose upside risks to the inflation trajectory," stated RBI.

Taking all these factors into consideration and assuming a normal monsoon, RBI has projected that CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 4.0%, with Q1 at 3.6%; Q2 at 3.9%; Q3 at 3.8%; and Q4 at 4.4%.

In a separate update, private forecaster Skymet last week said the country will likely receive normal monsoon rain in 2025 at 103% (give or take 5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for June to September. The spread of normal is 96-104% of LPA.