HMPV in India: How to recognise Covid-like pandemic? Are we prepared for it? All you need to know

Reports about the spread of HMPV, or Human Metapneumovirus, in China have raised alarm worldwide, with many fearing that this rapid transmission of the virus may lead to a Covid-19-like pandemic or a similar “health emergency”. 

Well, this is a far-fetched assumption as of now, according to health officials. HMPV, which causes respiratory illnesses, is not a new virus. It was identified in the early 2000s.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is a common respiratory virus that causes respiratory infections (like colds and coughs). It is a seasonal disease that usually occurs in the winter and early spring, similar to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and the flu.

Earlier this week, Dr Atul Goel, Director-General of Health Services, reassured the public that there is nothing to be alarmed about the present situation. Meanwhile, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said, “Respiratory infections tend to peak during the winter season.”

Apart from China, cases of HMPV have also been reported in Malaysia. Two cases were also detected in Karnataka, India, per the Ministry of Health's statement on Monday.

How to recognise a pandemic?

The definition of “pandemic” has been fluid throughout history. A pandemic is a stage after an "outbreak" and "epidemic.”

The Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health defined an outbreak as “a spike in the number of cases of disease.” It said an epidemic is an ongoing transmission of disease with no clear endpoint. Finally, it described a pandemic as a situation when there is sustained community-level transmission on two or more continents.

"The term pandemic refers to the "scope of cases of the disease, not the severity of those cases," Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health said in 2020.

Meanwhile, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) proposed eight characteristics of pandemics:

1. Novelty: Unknown to the medical profession

2. Minimal population immunity: Frequent absence of specific IgG antibodies

3. Explosiveness: Determined mainly by size or density of population and factors related to type of transmission, for example, vector population

4. Fast disease movement: Type and speed of human transmission

5. Wide geographic extension: Social interaction of populations, widespread common source

6. Infectiousness: Ability of microbes to produce disease (minimal infective dose)

7. Contagiousness: Proportion of completely asymptomatic cases, super-spreaders, and evident and pathognomonic disease markers

8. Severity: Need for hospitalisation, artificial ventilation, or intensive rehydration; chronicity or death

When should you be alarmed over a virus spread?

Experts have explained a few factors that need to be focused upon when tracking the severity of the virus. The first is to check how severe the morbidity is. Another factor is tracking symptoms -- to know if a particular virus causes any new symptoms of the disease. Other alarming factors could be a rise in hospitalisation and mortality due to infection.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said that the next pandemic is most likely to be caused by influenza.

Is world ready for another pandemic?

"Yes and No," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus as the world marked five years since the first COVID-19 outbreak. He said, "If the next pandemic arrived today, the world would still face some of the same weaknesses and vulnerabilities that gave COVID-19 a foothold five years ago."

In India, NITI Ayog released a report on "Future pandemic preparedness and emergency response – a framework for action". It was a report of the expert group released in August 2024.

Can HMPV infection be severe?

When HMPV is concerned, the virus poses a significant risk, particularly to vulnerable populations such as young children, the elderly, pregnant women, and those with weakened immune systems.

According to MAX Healthcare, the recent outbreak of HMPV in China "has highlighted the potential severity of this virus, particularly among vulnerable groups." It said the symptoms ranged from persistent coughs and fevers to more critical conditions such as bronchiolitis and pneumonia.