It’s time to play defense. Here are safe havens for Trump’s trade war.

Some sectors of the stock market have fared well amid mounting tariff worries.

Ian Salisbury( with inputs from Barrons)
Published5 Mar 2025, 03:23 PM IST
Trivariate Research likes Coke bottler Coca-Cola Consolidated for its solid earnings prospects.
Trivariate Research likes Coke bottler Coca-Cola Consolidated for its solid earnings prospects.

President Donald Trump’s trade war has rocked the stock market. Fortunately, investments like consumer staples stocks, gold, and bonds are all holding up well this year. That means investors have plenty of options for playing defense.

After a month-long delay, President Trump let 25% import tariffs go into effect on Canadian and Mexican goods on Tuesday while also slapping an additional 10% tax on Chinese goods. Stocks sold off sharply as investors scrambled to guess which companies would be hit hardest and how consumers would react.

The S&P 500 tumbled about 1.2%, while the Cboe Volatility Index, commonly called the market’s “fear gauge,” leapt more than 3% to 23.

The good news: Some sectors of the stock market have fared well amid mounting tariff worries. Staples stocks finished down 1.7% Tuesday, slightly worse than the market. But they have had a strong run in 2025, with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund gaining more than 6% through Monday. Other noncyclical sectors, such as healthcare (up 8.7% through Monday) and utilities (up 4.8%), have also fared well.

“In a volatile market, it’s time to play DEFENSE,” wrote Jefferies analyst Randal Konik in a note Tuesday, reiterating calls on some of his favorite consumer discretionary stocks that nonetheless boast strong fundamentals, including Planet Fitness, SharkNinja, and Nike, a 2024 Barron’s stock pick.

Nike stock was down 1.4% on Tuesday, though shares are still up more than 2% on the year. Investors are betting on a rebound by the struggling shoe company. (It’s worth noting that only about 18% of Nike footwear is made in China, with the balance produced in Indonesia and Vietnam.)

“We are focused on names with secular tailwinds, little fundamental downside, generating lots of cash, and with catalysts ahead,” Konik wrote.

Even some growth stocks can be defensive. Trivariate Research published a basket of “low beta growth stocks” Sunday that have posted solid returns in 2025.

The list boasts stocks with solid prospects for earnings growth and comparatively low volatility. It includes Coke bottler Coca-Cola Consolidated, up 6.2% this year; as well as healthcare companies Boston Scientific, up 16% this year; and McKesson, up 13%.

Investors who want a broader approach can consider ETFs, like the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF. The fund, which owns 180 low-risk large- and mid-cap stocks, has returned 6.3% in 2025 through Monday and was down just 1.2% on Tuesday.

While investors can expect the fund to lag behind the S&P 500 over the long run, it can dramatically outperform during periods of uncertainty, according to a report Tuesday by DataTrek Research. The most recent example was during the summer of 2022 when the Fed was quickly hiking interest rates to fight inflation.

The minimum volatility strategy “tends to work best when investors grow concerned about economic growth, which explains why this strategy is working so well this year,” wrote DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas.

Of course, well-diversified investors don’t just count on stocks to drive returns, they also have bonds and perhaps other assets like commodities. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose slightly Tuesday to 4.24%. But they have fallen sharply from a peak of just over 4.8% in mid-January, shortly before President Trump took office.

Interest rates move in the opposite direction to bond prices, so that is led to positive returns for bond investors. The iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF, an index fund that represents the broad bond market, has returned about 3% in 2025. It was down 0.3% on Tuesday.

Gold, the market’s classic safe haven, also rallied with prices on near-month contracts climbing 0.7% to $2,91o an ounce, only about 1.3% below the high set Feb. 24. Investors’ anxiety isn’t the only reason a tariff war could benefit gold. During the past several years, some of the market’s biggest gold buyers have been foreign central banks, including China’s, which are looking to diversify their currency reserves away from the U.S. dollar. Antagonism from the Trump administration is only likely to accelerate the trend.

“Getting dizzy? Buy gold,” wrote Yardeni Research in a note on Tuesday.

Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com

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First Published:5 Mar 2025, 03:23 PM IST
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