Reliance share price falls over 1% in the rising Indian stock market. Opportunity for bottom fishing?

Reliance Industries share price declined over a per cent on NSE on Tuesday, March 25, even as Indian stock market benchmarks ended with little gains. Reliance share price opened at ₹1,307.70 against its previous close of ₹1,302.10 and dropped 1.5 per cent to the level of ₹1,282.60 during the session. At close, the stock was 1.29 per cent down at ₹1,285.25 apiece on the NSE. Thus, the stock snapped its four-day winning run.

After hitting a 52-week low of ₹1,156 on March 3 this year, Reliance's share price has rebounded sharply. The heavyweight stock has seen a healthy gain of about 7 per cent this month until the closing of March 25th. This calendar year, the stock has gained 6 per cent, while equity benchmark Nifty 50 has been flat for the same period.

Why is Reliance share price falling today?

Reliance share price has come under pressure along with several of its peers from the oil and gas sector after US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that steep tariffs will be imposed on imports from countries purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela.

According to an AFP report, the new 25 per cent tariffs, targeting both direct and indirect buyers of Venezuelan oil, could take effect as soon as April 2, following an order signed by Trump.

The Nifty Oil & Gas index declined over 1 per cent during the session, with most stocks suffering losses.

The US tariff threat has raised concerns that it will negatively impact the margins of major crude oil refiners such as Reliance Industries.

According to media reports, in 2024, India imported 22 million barrels of oil from Venezuela in 2024. This was nearly 1.5 per cent of total crude oil purchases of the country.

However experts say that there is major negative for the Reliance stock at the current juncture and the decline in the stock today could be because of profit booking as the stock has gained significantly this year, outperforming the equity benchmark.

"The stock has seen a significant rise in the recent past, making some profit booking natural. There are no negative concerns regarding the stock. If crude prices remain soft, it will be a positive catalyst for Reliance shares," said Avinash Gorakshakar, the head of research at Profitmart Securities.

What should investors do with Reliance stock?

Experts say Reliance stock lacks fresh triggers at the moment. The heavyweight stock may see fresh movement after the Q4 results, which are expected to be out in April. They have a long-term positive view of the stock as they anticipate value unlocking in the retail business next year.

"We maintain a positive long-term outlook on the stock. Key triggers for the stock include the fourth-quarter (Q4FY25) results and the company's annual general meeting (AGM)," said Gorakshakar.

"The retail business may see value unlocking next year, as the company has indicated that while the telecom business will take more time, the retail segment is now well-positioned for a public listing," Gorakshakar said.

Brokerage firm Kotak Securities believes Reliance's retail business will improve in the next few quarters. Moreover, news flows on the IPO timeline for the telecom business can be a catalyst for the stock.

Kotak expects Reliance's earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 16.6 per cent in FY26 and by 17.4 per cent in FY27.

Kotak has a buy call on the stock with a fair value of ₹1,400.

While the stock's long-term outlook remains positive, some technical experts advise booking some profit at the current juncture and waiting for better entry levels.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, highlighted that Reliance share price has bounced sharply from ₹1,157 to ₹1,307.70, delivering a 13 per cent gain in a short span. However, the previous resistance zone near ₹1,330 could cap further upside.

"Traders are advised to book profits between ₹1,290-1,320 and wait for a pullback toward ₹1,250 for better entry levels. A fresh breakout is likely only if the stock closes above ₹1,330 on a daily basis, confirming further bullish momentum. Patience and disciplined entries can optimise returns in this scenario," Patel said.

According to Hardik Matalia, a derivative analyst at Choice Broking, the stock is forming a higher-high and higher-low pattern, suggesting strong buying interest and a positive market structure. A surge in trading volume further supports this momentum, strengthening the credibility of the breakout.

Matalia underscored that Reliance trades above the 20-EMA on the weekly chart, reinforcing its bullish outlook. However, it is currently facing resistance at the 200-EMA on the daily timeframe, a crucial level that must be surpassed for further upside confirmation.

Matalia believes a decisive close above ₹1,320 could pave the way for higher levels, with the next key resistance zones at ₹1,399 and ₹1,462. On the downside, immediate support is placed at ₹1,270, with a stronger support level at ₹1,228.

"Traders may consider entering near the current price of ₹1,288, with a target of ₹1,462 and a stop loss at ₹1,228 to manage risk effectively. While the technical setup remains constructive, short-term volatility cannot be ruled out. Hence, traders should adopt a disciplined approach with strict risk management to optimize their trade execution," said Matalia.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.