Indian stock market: 10 key things that changed for market amid fear of Black Monday- Gift Nifty to global markets crash

Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open sharply lower on Monday, following a steep sell-off in global markets as the US tariffs-induced trade war increased fears of recession.

Asian markets slumped today, while the US stock market crashed, with Dow futures extending losses, as concerns over global recession continued to rip through markets.

Wall Street market crashed on Friday, confirming the Nasdaq Composite was in a bear market and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was in a correction.

This week, investors will monitor key stock market triggers, including the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the first set of Q4 results, global tariff announcements, macroeconomic data, and other key global market cues.

On Friday, the Indian stock market crashed amid a sharp sell-off across the board, with the Nifty 50 slipping below 23,000 level.

The Sensex slumped 930.67 points, or 1.22%, to close at 75,364.69m while the Nifty 50 settled 345.65 points, or 1.49%, lower at 22,904.45.

“Markets slumped in sync with the crash in global equities with sectors crashing over 2-6% on broader-based selling. Investors fear Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy will fuel recession and drive inflation in the US going ahead and will also engulf other key economies. A sharp fall in metal and oil stocks is indicating that demand could be hit amid slowdown fears,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets plunged on Monday, following Wall Street sell-off, as fears of a global trade war increased risk of recession.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 crashed 8.8% to a 1-1/2-year low, while the Topix index plummeted 8.64%. Trading in Japanese futures was suspended earlier in the day due to the market hitting circuit breakers. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 4.34%, while the Kosdaq declined 3.48%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a weaker opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 22,175 level, a discount of nearly 782 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market nosedived for a second straight day on Friday as an escalating global trade war spurred the biggest losses since the pandemic.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked 2,231.07, or 5.50%, to 38,314.86 points, while the S&P 500 lost 322.44 points, or 5.97%, to close at 5,074.08, its lowest finish in 11 months. The Nasdaq ended 962.82 points, or 5.82%, lower at 15,587.79

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 9.1%, the Dow declined 7.9%, and the Nasdaq slumped 10%.

Apple share price cracked 7.29%, Nvidia stock price plunged 7.36%, Advanced Micro Devices shares tanked 8.57%, while Tesla share price slumped 10.42%.

US Trade Talks

More than 50 nations have reached out to the White House to begin trade talks since US President Donald Trump rolled out sweeping new tariffs, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, Reuters reported. Neither Bessent nor the other officials named the countries or offered details about the talks. China announced that it will impose a 34% tax on all US goods and export curbs on some rare earths.

US Nonfarm Payrolls

The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in March. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 117,000 rise in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 135,000 jobs after a previously reported 151,000 rise in February. Estimates ranged from 50,000 to 185,000.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell

President Donald Trump’s new tariffs are “larger than expected,” and the economic fallout including higher inflation and slower growth likely will be as well, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, while cautioning it was still too soon to know what the right response from the central bank ought to be, Reuters reported.

“We face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation,” undermining both of the Fed’s mandates of 2% inflation and maximum employment, Powell said.

Dollar

US dollar weakened as uncertainty over tariffs and concern over their impact on US growth intensified. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index fell more than 0.4% to 102.48, having tumbled 1% last week.

The dollar was down 1.3% against the yen at 144.95, languishing near a six-month low. The euro was up 0.26% at $1.0994, while sterling eased 0.13% to $1.2889. The offshore Chinese yuan was last little changed at 7.2861 per dollar.

US Treasury Yields

US Treasury yields fell and the two-year yield sank to a multi-year low as worries of a possible recession in the world’s largest economy grew. The two-year US Treasury yield tumbled more than 20 basis points to its lowest level since September 2022 at 3.4350%. The benchmark 10-year yield last stood at 3.9158%.

Bitcoin Prices

Bitcoin prices plunged amid a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies on risk-off sentiment across markets. Bitcoin price dropped about 7% to reach a low point of $77,077. Second-ranked token Ether plummeted to $1,538, an intra-day low not seen since October 2023.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices plunged on a gloomier outlook for global growth. Brent crude oil plunged 3.16% to $63.51 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 3.45% to $59.85.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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