How will the Indian stock market open today after Delhi exit polls? Key Sensex, Nifty levels, stocks to watch

Stock market today: The Indian stock market took a breather from its recent rally and settled lower on Wednesday, February 5, after investors turned cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy committee (MPC) interest rate verdict this week and trade war concerns.

The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 312.53 points or 0.40 per cent to settle at 78,271.28, with 21 of its constituents closing down and nine with gains. During the day, it decreased by 367.56 points or 0.46 per cent to 78,216.25. The NSE Nifty dropped 42.95 points or 0.18 per cent to 23,696.30. The index moved between a high of 23,807.30 and a low of 23,680.45 during the day.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 index rose by 1.85 per cent to 17,108, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index ended the day with a gain of 0.68 per cent, closing at 54,180. The rupee plunged 36 paise to close at an all-time low of 87.43 against the US dollar after global trade war concerns fuelled risk aversion among investors. 

Also Read: Trump tariffs impact: Rupee emerges worst-performing Asian currency YTD ahead of RBI MPC’s interest rate verdict

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic currency opened on a weak note at 87.13 and touched an intraday low of 87.49 against the greenback. The local unit finally settled at a record closing low of 87.43, 36 paise lower than its previous close. 

According to forex traders, the rupee is trading with a negative bias over the global trade war after market participants mulled the impact of tariffs imposed by the US and China. RBI's interest rate cut concerns, and the broad strength of the greenback in the overseas market dented investor sentiments further.

How will the Indian stock market open today after Delhi exit polls?

At least six exit polls released so far have predicted a clean sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Delhi Election 2025 held on February 5. The pollsters have given 35-60 seats to the saffron party and 32-37 seats to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has been in power in the national capital for the past 11 years. The majority mark in Delhi's 70-member assembly is 36.

According to market observers, the Indian stock market will likely open higher on Thursday, February 6, after the Delhi exit polls predicted the BJP's return to power in the national capital after almost three decades. BJP's return to power in the state and general elections has resulted in positive market sentiments over pro-growth policies, which boost PSU stocks.

Also Read: Delhi Exit Polls 2025: Most exit polls give edge to BJP. AAP headed for Opposition?

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, the domestic market traded within a narrow range in negative terrain. Investors are weighing the improved domestic outlook, buoyed by a favourable budget, against lingering global uncertainties stemming from the tariff war. 

Prashanth Tapse, Senior vice president (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd., believes markets mirrored weak global cues and ended lower amid selling in select banking, auto, realty, and FMCG stocks. However, the broader markets and other sectoral stocks bucked the trend as investors lapped up mid—and small-cap stocks after the recent sell-off. 

According to Tapse, while all eyes will be on Friday's monetary policy announcement, intra-day volatility could intensify over the next few sessions. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, Nifty remained range-bound throughout the session. The sectoral trend was mixed, with metals and energy registering decent gains. 

Also Read: RBI Policy: What should be investors’ strategy in stock, bond, and currency markets ahead of MPC’s repo rate decision?

In contrast, realty and FMCG remained under pressure. However, the key highlight of the session was the strong participation from broader indices, which posted gains ranging from 0.7 per cent to 1.85 per cent.

"Going forward, the Nifty index may continue to consolidate after its recent surge, but the broader trend remains positive unless there is a decisive close below the 23,400 level. With all key sectors contributing to the rally on a rotational basis, traders should focus on stock selection and prioritize accumulating fundamentally strong stocks during dips," said Mishra.

Key Nifty technical levels, stocks to watch

Technically, on a daily scale, Nifty formed a red candle near trend line resistance, indicating profit booking. The recent breakout point is located around 23,630 levels. Bank Nifty opened on a gap-up note, saw buying interest, and finally settled the day on a positive at 50,343 levels.

“While declining US bond yields and lower crude oil prices have supported market sentiment, the rupee's depreciation could offset these gains. Rate-sensitive sectors are attracting attention ahead of a potential RBI rate cut. Meanwhile, large-cap stocks are well-positioned, benefiting from moderation in valuations,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit.

Also Read: Is RBI poised to cut repo rate for first time in five years under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra?

“23,600–23,630 will serve as support, while 23,800–23,810 will act as hurdles for the Nifty index. A breakout in either direction will determine the index's future trajectory,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP of Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.

"Technically speaking, the Bank Nifty faced resistance near its previous breakdown point, leading to profit booking and the formation of a spinning top candlestick pattern, indicating profit booking. Support for the index is near 50,000, while resistance for the index is around 50,600. A breakout in either direction will set up the next move for the index," added Mehta.

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty 50 index remained mostly sideways during the session before closing slightly lower. The fall was limited to around 23,700 on the lower end of the range, while the upside was capped at approximately 23,800. 

"In the short term, the trend continues to favour the bulls as the index remains above the critical moving average, supporting a bullish outlook. On the higher end, the index may continue to move towards 24,050 in the near term. Meanwhile, support is placed at 23,500, where maximum put writing is visible," added De.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.