Adani Green Energy shares surge 15% in March after 5 months of back-to-back losses. Should you buy now?

After facing a steep decline of over 59 percent over the past five months, Adani Green Energy has staged a strong recovery in March, gaining over 15 percent so far. This rebound follows a bullish outlook from multiple global brokerages, which see substantial upside potential for the stock as the company plays a pivotal role in India's renewable energy transition.

Macquarie has initiated coverage on Adani Green Energy with an 'Outperform' rating and a target price of ₹1,200 per share, implying a 37 percent upside from current levels. Under its bull-case scenario, the brokerage estimates the stock could rise to as high as ₹2,600—signalling a potential rally of nearly 200 percent from recent closing levels.

Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald has also initiated coverage on Adani Green Energy with an 'Overweight' rating and a price target of ₹1,222, implying a 40 percent upside.

Macquarie on Adani Green stock

Macquarie highlighted Adani Green Energy’s key role in India’s energy transition, targeting 50 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity by financial year 2030 in a bull-case scenario. 

In its base case, the brokerage projects a more conservative 30 GW, driven by improved utilisation rates, advancements at the Khavda super-site, and an increasing share of higher-tariff merchant capacities. As a result, it expects a 25 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in EBITDA over the next five years.

In a bull-case scenario, Macquarie anticipates the company achieving its ambitious 50 GW renewable energy capacity target by FY30, resulting in a 40 percent CAGR in revenue and EBITDA. Macquarie noted that while the company’s heavy capital expenditure is backed by stable cash flows, funding and refinancing costs remain key risks.

The brokerage estimates that Adani Green will generate USD 1.8 billion in annual operating cash flow to support a cumulative capex requirement of over USD 10 billion through fiscal 2030. It also expects India’s power demand to grow at a CAGR of 6.0-8.5 percent between financial years 2025 and 2030, driven by rising demand from cooling appliances, data centres, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen production.

Cantor Fitzgerald on Adani Green shares

Cantor Fitzgerald noted that Adani Green Energy, India’s largest renewable energy company with an 11.6 GW portfolio, is well-positioned to benefit from the country’s push toward net-zero emissions. The brokerage sees the company as a compelling investment opportunity, given its strong growth potential.

Adani Green is currently trading at 15.6 times its estimated EV/EBITDA for the financial year 2026, slightly below its peers despite higher growth potential. From financial year 2019 to 2024, the company’s revenue and EBITDA grew at a CAGR of 40.9 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively. Looking ahead, Cantor Fitzgerald forecasts revenue and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 21.3 percent and 25.9 percent, respectively, from financial year 2025 to 2030. By fiscal 2030, EBITDA is expected to reach USD 3.3 billion, compared to its current enterprise value of around USD 24 billion.

Cantor Fitzgerald emphasised that Adani Green remains in an early growth phase, aiming to scale operational capacity to over 50 GW by 2030, a fourfold increase. As of the first half of the financial year 2025, the company’s net debt stood at USD 6.9 billion, with an improving debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.14 times. The brokerage believes this financial flexibility will enable Adani Green to fund expansion through organic cash generation, reducing reliance on external debt.

Adani Green stock price performance

Despite the recent uptrend, Adani Green Energy has lost 54 percent of its value over the past year. While the Adani Group stock has gained 15 percent in March so far, it has declined 22 percent in February, 4 percent in January, 21 percent in December, 17 percent in November, and 16 percent in October.

Currently, the stock is trading 60 percent below its 52-week high of ₹2,173.65, which was recorded in June 2024. However, it has rebounded 15 percent from its 52-week low of ₹758, reached earlier this month.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.