Phoenix Mills March quarter update signals softer retail momentum

The Phoenix Mills Ltd’s shares fell almost 5% to ₹1,495.80 apiece on Wednesday after its March quarter (Q4FY25) and FY25 operational business update disappointed. Sure, it reported its highest-ever annual consumption at ₹13,760 crore, up 21% year-on-year, largely driven by the ramp-up of newly launched assets, including Phoenix Mall of Asia in Bengaluru and Phoenix Mall of the Millennium in Pune and expansion at Phoenix Palladium.

But, its Q4 consumption growth was slower at 15% year-on-year to ₹3,260 crore. Sequentially, consumption declined 19%—a seasonal pullback—but also a sign that the post-festive surge may have peaked.

JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd's calculation indicates a 6% like-for-like on-year growth in Q4. This is a marked deceleration from a 10% like-for-like growth seen in Q3, signalling early signs of normalization in discretionary consumption.

Also Read: FMCG's Q4 woes: Why India's consumer goods giants are expecting a dull quarter

Shining segments

Meanwhile, the hospitality segment continued to outperform. Q4 occupancy at The St. Regis, Mumbai, was robust at 92%, with ARR (average room rates) up 11% on-year and RevPAR (revenue per available room) rising 15%. Courtyard by Marriott, Agra, saw ARR climb by 10% despite a marginal dip in occupancy—a reflection of sustained travel momentum.

The residential business also fared well, with a sharp on-year sales growth in Q4, while collections improved sequentially. However, overall FY25 pre-sales and collections dropped sharply, weighed by depleted unsold inventory. Commercial leasing remained modest at about 0.2 million square feet (msf) for the year, with occupancy at 66%. Two key assets—Phoenix Asia Towers in Bengaluru and Millennium Tower 3 in Pune—received occupation certificates, adding to the future monetizable base.

Also Read: This smallcap pipe stock is down 61% in last one year. Can Q4 spark a comeback?

As a part of its earlier outlined strategy, Phoenix Mills plans to double its annuity portfolio by 2030 and has guided to add 1msf of new space annually from FY27, with development activity picking up in Thane, Chandigarh, and Coimbatore. Its premium residential project, One Belvedere in Kolkata, is expected to launch in Q1FY26, alongside planned expansion into cities like Jaipur, national capital region, and Goa.

“Entry into new cities and operationalization of under-construction assets are key triggers that could drive the next leg of growth,” said analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities. With discretionary spending normalizing and new assets stabilizing, Phoenix Mills is at an inflexion point—shifting from a consumption rebound story to a multi-city asset monetization play.

Also Read: Wipro, Infosys March quarter results paint gloomy outlook for FY25

JM Financial has a sum-of-the-parts-based March 2026 target price of ₹1,630 for the stock and has maintained its ‘Hold’ rating. Going ahead, investor focus is likely to be on margin development and return on capital.