MCX Gold price today: Rates hit a record high ahead of the US Fed policy outcome; should you book profit?

Gold price today: Gold rates rose to a fresh record high for the second consecutive session in the domestic futures market on Wednesday, March 19, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies boosted the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal. MCX Gold for April 4 contracts rose to a fresh all-time high of ₹88,969 per 10 grams. Around 10:05 AM, MCX Gold traded 0.20 per cent higher at ₹88,899 per 10 grams.

International gold prices also traded near the record high amid a flare-up in tensions in the Middle East and concerns over Trump's tariff moves.

The rising conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas has created fresh uncertainty on the geopolitical front, supporting gold prices.

Reuters reported, quoting Palestinian health authorities, that Israeli airstrikes killed more than 400 people. This has threatened a two-month ceasefire as Israel vowed to use more force to free hostages held by Hamas, the report further added.

The focus is now on the US Federal Reserve policy outcome and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's projections on economic growth and inflation amid growing uncertainty due to Trump's aggressive tariff moves.

Experts do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates and change its policy stance at this juncture as the impact of the Trump administration's policies will unfold in the coming months.

Should you buy, hold or book profit in gold?

The key drivers of gold prices are the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, growth-inflation dynamics, the fall in the dollar index, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and demand from India and China.

While the outlook for the yellow metal remains positive, experts say investors may consider booking some profit in gold today ahead of the US Fed policy outcome.

"We suggest booking profits in gold and silver in today's session ahead of the FOMC meeting outcomes and waiting for some corrective dips to initiate fresh long positions," said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

According to Jain, gold has support at $3,022-3,008, while resistance at $3,055-3,080 per troy ounce in today’s session. MCX Gold has support at ₹88,400-88,080 and resistance at ₹89,000-89,360, Jain said.

Can MCX Gold hit ₹1,00,000 per 10 gram mark in the near term?

Experts say gold prices may not hit the ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams mark this year. It may consolidate near ₹91,000-92,000 levels.

They expect the yellow metal to reach this coveted level in the next two to three years.

"Gold prices may rise to $3,100 soon and consolidate around this level throughout the year. In Indian rupees, gold could reach ₹91,500-92,000, but it is unlikely to touch the ₹1,00,000 mark this year," said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Experts highlight some key hurdles which may cap the gains of gold.

According to Modi of Motilal Oswal, gold prices have discounted slower global economic growth. If macroeconomic data suggests an accelerating economy, it could trigger profit booking in gold.

Moreover, the market has been pricing in two rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year, but there is no indication of a shift in the Fed’s stance beyond that. If the Fed opts for a prolonged pause instead of cutting rates, it could pose a significant hurdle for gold prices, said Modi.

Gold demand may also moderate at higher price levels due to supply tightness and potential demand fatigue. Historically, gold demand tends to weaken when prices rise sharply, which could weigh on future price gains.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, strong equity markets diverting investor interest, stronger US dollar, aggressive Fed policies, and reduced geopolitical tensions could weigh on gold prices.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.