Gold rate today: Trade war concerns boost gold prices; experts unveil strategy for MCX Gold

Gold rate today: Gold rates increased in the domestic futures market in the morning trade session on Thursday, February 13, tracking positive global cues amid healthy demand from the domestic spot market. MCX Gold for April 4 contracts opened at ₹85,700 per 10 grams against its previous close of ₹85,481 and extended gains to reach the level of ₹85,850 within the first 10 minutes of the session. Around 9:10 AM, the yellow metal's April contract was trading 0.43 per cent higher at ₹85,848 per 10 grams. MCX Gold had hit an all-time high of ₹86,360 per 10 grams on February 11.

International gold prices also rose due to increased safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and their global implications.

Why are gold prices rising?

Domestic spot gold prices have jumped nearly 12 per cent in just one and a half months this year. There are three key reasons why gold prices have been rising this year.

1. Concerns over a trade war: US President Donald Trump's trade policies have been a major factor in the rise in gold prices.

Experts fear his aggressive tariff policies against the European Union, China, Mexico, Canada, and several other countries may lead to a global trade war, creating significant macroeconomic uncertainty and weighing on global economic growth.

Gold prices rise during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Global trends significantly influence domestic gold prices.

2. Central bank buying: Major central banks worldwide have been aggressively buying gold since 2024 amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation.

According to a Bloomberg report, China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for a third month in January. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also bought large quantities of gold. According to media reports, India's central bank added 72.6 tonnes of gold to its stock in 2024.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks bought over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. WGC expects central banks and ETF investors to drive demand with economic uncertainty, which supports gold’s role as a risk hedge.

3. Increased investment demand: Retail investors have turned towards gold amid sticky inflation and weakness in the stock market. Gold acts as a hedge against inflation and attracts more investment when the stock market outlook is hazy.

According to the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) data, gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) received the highest monthly inflow of ₹3,751 crore in January. This marked a whopping 486 per cent month-on-month jump against an inflow of ₹640 crore in December.

Gold price outlook and strategy

Experts point out that the recent US consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday indicated the path of US Fed rate cut could be narrower.

According to Reuters, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that "Fed's battle with rising prices wasn't finished, and meant any further rate cuts would have to wait until it is clear inflation will return to the Fed's 2 per cent target."

Investors' focus is now on the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due later today.

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research expects gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week.

Jain said Gold has support at $2,914-2,896, while resistance at $2,950-2,970 per troy ounce and silver has support at $32.40-32.16, while resistance is at $33.00-33.30 per troy ounce in today’s session.

MCX Gold has support at ₹85,000-84450 and resistance at ₹85,820-86,300 while silver has support at ₹94,750-94,000 and resistance at ₹96,200-97,000, said Jain.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, gold has support at $2,888-2,870 while resistance at $2,924-2,942. Silver has support at $31.98-31.78 while resistance is at $32.50-32.72.

In INR, gold has support at ₹85,170-84,860, while resistance at ₹85,880-86,140. Silver has support at ₹95,050-94,350 while resistance at ₹96,350-97,250, said Kalantri.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.