Gold rate today on track for longest weekly winning streak since COVID-19 rally. Trade war fear, US dollar rate in focus

Gold rate today: Following a bounce back in the US dollar rates from a two-month low, the MCX gold rate retraced from the record high and climbed yesterday. Gold price today on the MCX, opened lower at ₹85,715 per 10 gm and touched an intraday low of ₹85,690 per 10 gm within a few minutes of the Opening Bell. However, the precious metal bounced back strongly and touched an intraday high of ₹85,890. However, despite this weak opening, gold prices are set to end higher for the seventh straight week — the longest since the COVID-19 rally in 2020.

Eighth weekly gain in focus

Gold rate today looks set to end the week in positive territory, marking its eighth consecutive weekly gain—the longest winning streak since the pandemic-era rally. Over the last seven weeks (including today), the precious metal has surged from $2,622 (spot) per troy ounce to $2,934, registering a 12% gain. In the previous trading session, spot gold price touched another record high of $2954.

The continued rally in gold prices has been driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and escalating trade disputes, which analysts believe could fuel global inflation and slow economic growth.

In under two months of the current calendar year, prices have registered 13 record highs, indicating that investors are quickly moving away from risky assets such as stocks to safer investments like gold.

Meanwhile, the prices have been marching north over the last year without any notable pullback, moving from $2,039 per troy ounce to the current trading price of $2,931, resulting in a stellar gain of 44%. In the domestic market, prices have jumped from ₹62,735 per 10 grams to ₹86,560, translating into a gain of 38%. 

The prolonged rally has also led analysts to raise their price forecasts for the yellow metal, as previous targets have been surpassed earlier than expected. Recently, global brokerage firm Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from the previous $2,890.

Likewise, UBS adjusted its 12-month gold price forecast to $3,000 per ounce, up from $2,850, while Citi set a new short-term gold price target at $3,000 per ounce, with its average forecast for the year now at $2,900, an increase from the previous $2,800.

Gold surges 23% in nine straight weeks of gains during pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, investors aggressively turned to gold as the uncertainty surrounding the global economy, coupled with worldwide lockdowns, drove them to seek safe-haven assets. Gold has long been considered a reliable investment during periods of economic turmoil.

Between June 2020 and August 2020, gold prices rallied for nine consecutive weeks, surging from $1,685 to surpass the $2,000 mark for the first time, reaching $2,075—a gain of 23.14%. Surprisingly, prices cooled down in the following months, and it took nearly 35 months for gold to break its previous record high in December 2023, hitting $2,148. Since then, it has maintained an upward trend.

Trade war, US dollar rate in focus

Speaking on the reason for the weak opening, Anuj Gupta, Head — Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, said, “MCX gold rate today is under pressure during the early morning session as the US dollar rates have bounced back from the two-month low. However, the outlook for the US currency is still weak, and renewed trade war fear is still around. So, we expect the gold rush to continue and advise investors to maintain a buy-on-dips strategy.”

Triggers for gold price today

Speaking on the reasons fueling the gold price today, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst—Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, said, “A weaker dollar index has further aided gold’s upward momentum, while ongoing tariff adjustments from the US continue to fuel uncertainty, keeping demand for gold high. The price range for gold is expected to be between ₹85,000 and ₹87,500 in the near term.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.