Gold prices surge 23% in 2025; MCX Gold hits an all-time high of ₹93,940—will the rally continue?

Gold prices have been on a roll this year. Domestic spot gold prices have jumped 23 per cent this year so far. In April so far alone, the yellow metal has climbed 5 per cent. MCX Gold June 5 contract hit an all-time high of ₹93,940 per 10 gram last Friday (April 11). It finally settled 0.15 per cent up at ₹93,887 per 10 grams.

International gold prices also saw strong gains, with Comex Gold ending 2.44 per cent higher at $3,254.90 after hitting a record high of $3,263 per troy ounce.

Why are gold rates rising?

Gold prices have posted strong gains this year, driven by a combination of key factors.

The biggest among them is the concerns over trade war. Trade war jitters are supporting gold prices. While US President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on several countries, he raised tariffs on China to a whopping 125 per cent. China, too, retaliated and increased tariffs on US goods from 84 per cent to 125 per cent.

Rising trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have heightened uncertainty around global economic growth—creating a supportive backdrop for gold prices. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold prices typically gain during periods of economic instability.

Trump’s tariff measures have sparked concerns that the US economy could slip into a recession this year. A potential slowdown may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—an outcome that typically supports gold prices.

Declining dollar index is another crucial factor that has raised gold's appeal. The US Dollar Index slipped below 100 on Friday, ending over a per cent lower at 99.78.

Since gold is priced in the US dollar, weakness in the US currency makes bullion cheaper in other currencies, enhancing its demand.

Will the rally continue?

Experts expect gold prices to continue rising due to trade war, dollar decline and the expectations of rate cut.

"The rally in gold prices may continue, driven by ongoing trade war-related uncertainties and growing recession fears. A weaker US dollar, coupled with the possibility of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, is likely to support further upside in the yellow metal. We expect international gold prices to rise to $3,300–$3,500 per troy ounce, while domestic gold could touch ₹97,000 per 10 grams by the end of 2025," said Anuj Gupta, the head of commodities and currency products at HDFC Securities.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said with momentum in favour of buyers, gold now eyes the resistance zone of ₹94,500– ₹95,000, while ₹92,000 serves as an important support.

Trivedi said that the ongoing developments in the tariff dispute and investor positioning ahead of key global economic data will continue to drive price action.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.