Gold prices shatter records 15 times in 2025! Experts see yellow metal at THIS level by FY26-end

Gold prices climbed to a new all-time high on Friday, driven by escalating trade war fears, as US President Donald Trump pressed ahead with plans to impose tariffs on all auto imports. The precious metal rose 0.7 per cent to breach $3,077 per ounce, surpassing Thursday’s record, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Trump signed a proclamation on Thursday enforcing a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports, while warning of stricter penalties against the EU and Canada if they retaliate against the US. Additionally, markets are bracing for another wave of trade levies on April 2, as the White House plans to introduce so-called reciprocal tariffs. However, the full extent of these measures remains uncertain.

On the domestic front, MCX Gold April 4 contracts were trading 0.54 per cent higher at ₹88,865 per 10 grams around 9:30 am.

Gold has now rallied roughly 16 per cent year-to-date, repeatedly setting fresh all-time highs, with at least 15 records broken in 2025 alone. The surge has been driven by robust central bank purchases and increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.

With growing trade tensions and lingering inflation worries, analysts expect gold prices to remain on an upward trajectory in the near term, as investors continue to seek refuge in the precious metal.

Will bull run for gold continue in FY26?

Gold prices are projected to remain on a bullish trajectory in FY26, supported by geopolitical tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and central bank demand.

With upcoming US economic data releases, including the PCE inflation index and GDP figures, the precious metal's price momentum will be closely watched. Experts anticipate gold could reach $3,100 globally and potentially ₹91,000 in the Indian market by year-end FY26.

According to Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, gold’s FY26 price projections will be influenced by a mix of global inflation trends, Federal Reserve policies, and India-specific drivers. He noted that persistently high inflation would continue to strengthen gold’s appeal as a hedge.

“The Fed’s anticipated rate cuts will be a critical factor, although recent inflation data has added uncertainty around the timing and pace of these cuts. Additionally, slower global economic growth and ongoing geopolitical risks could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand,” Makda added.

On the domestic front, the USD-INR exchange rate will play a major role. A weaker rupee makes imported gold more expensive, pushing domestic prices higher. With S&P Global Ratings lowering India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5 per cent, the uncertain economic outlook is expected to sustain gold’s safe-haven appeal in the Indian market.

Considering these factors, Makda expects global gold prices to potentially touch $3,100 per ounce by FY26-end, while domestic prices could rise to approximately ₹91,000 per 10 grams.

Gold’s strong FY25 performance and FY26 expectations

Reflecting on FY25, Colin Shah, MD of Kama Jewelry, highlighted that gold prices surged 15.4 per cent globally and 14 per cent in the domestic market, marking one of the strongest annual performances in a decade. This remarkable rise was fueled by falling interest rates, heightened geopolitical tensions, and robust central bank buying. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) alone purchased 32.63 tonnes of gold in the first half of FY25, bringing its total reserves to 854.73 tonnes.

Looking ahead to FY26, Shah expects gold prices to continue their upward trend, driven by the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and the potential return of Trump’s tariff threats. However, he cautioned that strengthening of the US dollar and possible shifts in investor preferences toward other asset classes could temporarily cap gold’s upside.

Technical outlook for gold

Riya Singh, Research Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services, pointed out that gold’s rally is being reinforced by the return of ETF inflows, reversing a four-year outflow trend. In 2024 alone, ETF holdings added 154 tons, providing further support to prices.

Singh noted that gold’s 15 per cent surge in 2024, now hovering around $3,020 per ounce, has been underpinned by weakening US consumer confidence, which recently hit a four-year low, and renewed fears of economic stagnation. The geopolitical landscape remains a key factor. Meanwhile, US tariff measures scheduled for April 2, 2025, could introduce additional market volatility, boosting gold’s appeal, she said.

From a technical standpoint, Singh predicts gold could consolidate around $3,035 to $2,975 in the near term, but any escalation in trade tensions could trigger a breakout toward $3,100 to $3,150. Despite intermittent pressure from a resilient U.S. dollar, Fed rate cuts and persistent global instability are expected to keep the bullish momentum intact.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.