Gold price outlook: Is yellow metal headed for further upside amid tariff pressures? Comex, MCX gold price range here

Gold price outlook: Gold Futures on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) were trading 1.21 per cent or ₹1,051 higher on Tuesday, April 8, as part of a global market recovery amid Trump tariff pressures.

Gold futures for the June 2025 contract were trading 1.21 per cent higher at ₹87,979 as of 6:27 p.m. (IST), compared to ₹86,928 at the previous commodity market close.

Both international gold prices and the MCX gold have been trading higher since the morning of April 8 amid heightened concerns about the escalating global trade war.

In times of such high geopolitical tensions, the gold prices tend to rise as investors shift their bets from risker assets like equities to save haven assets like gold and government bonds.

Is MCX Gold on an upward trajectory?

Jateen Trivedi, the VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said that domestic gold had witnessed a sharp recovery. For now, the MCX gold is expected to trade between ₹86,000 and ₹90,000, with the global sentiment as ‘cautious’ amid the trade war between the United States and other world nations.

“Gold traded positive with a sharp recovery, gaining ₹1,100 in MCX to move above ₹88,000 as rupee weakness added to the upside momentum. The global sentiment remained cautious with the dollar index moving sideways near the 102 mark, offering no strong headwinds to gold. However, the key driver remained tariff tensions, as China’s aggressive stance to ‘fight till the end’ against US trade measures reignited safe-haven demand,” said the stock market expert.

“In Comex, gold rebounded strongly from the $2,970 support zone, climbing toward $3,010 as traders brace for volatility ahead of the crucial US CPI data due this week. The inflation data will provide further clarity on Fed’s policy path, with potential implications on gold’s trajectory. For now, the expected price range remains between ₹86,000 and ₹90,000 in MCX,” said Trivedi.

Investors eye key US economic data

Amid Donald Trump's US tariff row, commodities investors are now eyeing US Federal Reserves' (Fed) policy stance along with key economic data like the US consumer price index (CPI), which poses a risk of an elevated inflation figure indicating a potential slowdown in growth for the major economy.

“COMEX gold price fell over 2% on Monday, closing at $2,973.60 per ounce, marking a third consecutive session of losses and the lowest close in three weeks. A stronger US dollar drove the decline as investors liquidated gold positions to cover margin calls and lock in profits amid broader market volatility,” said Kaynat Chainwala, the AVP of Commodity at Kotak Securities.

“The uncertainty deepened after President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on China unless it removed its 34% retaliatory duty on US goods. Risk-off sentiment has risen since last week, driven by sweeping US tariffs, which have heightened fears of a global recession,” said Chainwala.

“Today, gold rebounded by 1.5%, trading above $3,020 per ounce as escalating trade war risks and geopolitical tensions, including Trump’s warning to Iran over a potential nuclear deal, revived demand for safe-haven assets. Investors are now awaiting key US data and the FOMC meeting minutes for clues on future policy direction. However, Fed Chair Powell has already signalled a cautious approach to rate cuts due to the elevated inflation risk and slower growth from the Trump tariffs,” he said.

Supporting Chainwala's stance, Manav Modi, Senior Analyst of Commodities Research at Motilal Oswal, said that markets witnessed panic on Monday over “fake news” of President Trump likely considering a pause on tariffs to facilitate negotiations with trading partners.

“Gold prices increased from a nearly four-week low in the previous session as heightened concerns over the global trade war between the United States and its key trading partners lifted demand for safe-haven assets,” he said.

“Markets will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes. Focus this week will be on RBI interest rate decision and US CPI and PPI data,” said the stock market expert.

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