Crude oil outlook: Brent nears $65 on Iran export cuts, dips 8% in a month; Key technical range for MCX

Crude oil outlook: Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed over $1 in the previous session after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could end Iran's oil exports as part of an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to terms over its nuclear program. This comes amid global economic risk arising from US President Donald Trump's tariff hikes across nations worldwide.

Brent crude futures settled at $64.76 a barrel, up $1.43, or 2.26 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $61.50 a barrel, up $1.43 or 2.38 per cent. Wright's comments provided upward momentum for oil prices, following volatile price swings this week after Donald Trump's new tariff regime forced traders to reassess the geopolitical risks facing the crude market.

US-China tariff war's impact on crude oil

Brent crude has dipped eight per cent in one month and 15 per cent year-to-date (YTD). China announced on Friday it will impose a 125 per cent tariff on US goods starting on Saturday, up from the previously announced 84 per cent, after Trump raised tariffs against China to 145 per cent. It rose over two per cent on Friday.

Donald Trump paused heavy tariffs against dozens of other trading partners, but a prolonged dispute between the world's two biggest economies will likely reduce global trade volumes and disrupt routes, weighing on global growth and reducing oil demand.

Crude oil outlook: Key technical levels on MCX

According to Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, “WTI crude oil erased all gains from the previous session, which had been driven by Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for several countries. The exclusion of China from this pause, along with sharply increased duties on Chinese goods, weighed heavily on market sentiment, dampening demand prospects and dragging WTI back below $60 per barrel.”

Adding to the bearish outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) slashed its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 900,000 barrels per day, down by 400,000 barrels from its previous estimate," added Chainwala.

Goldman Sachs forecast that Brent and WTI crude prices would be at $62 a barrel and $58 by December 2025 and at $55 and $51 by December 2026, respectively, under two assumptions. The bank noted that in a typical US recession and their OPEC baseline scenario, they estimate that Brent would decline to $58 by December 2025, and $50 by December 2026, respectively.

Domestic brokerage Axis Securities recommends buying MCX crude above ₹5,270 with a stoploss below ₹5,200 at a target price of ₹5,370/5,420. Nearby Support: ₹5,140/ 5,080/ 5,000; Nearby Resistance: ₹5,270/ 5,340/ 5,400; Nearby Gap(s): ₹5,235.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.