Kashmir tourism is on thin ice amid a second straight snowless winter

Srinagar: For centuries, Srinagar, also known as ‘the Venice of the East’, has been famed for its snowy landscapes, serene Dal Lake, and iconic shikaras. However, snow has now deserted the region for two winters in a row, crippling its tourism-dependent economy.

The Kashmir Valley is in the grip of Chillai Kalan, the local name for a 40-day period of harsh winter that sees sub-zero temperatures. The Jammu & Kashmir meteorological department has predicted dry weather will persist until the end of the month. That tourists hoping to see Kashmir blanketed in snow have been left disappointed for a second straight year is no small matter, since tourism contributes 8.47% of its GDP, according to government data. 

Even Gulmarg, known as India’s ‘winter wonderland’ and one of the country’s premier skiing destinations, is experiencing a second straight snowless winter, leaving tourists and skiers from around the world disheartened. Like last year, Gulmarg’s bowl-shaped valley is covered in dry mud, resulting in a significant drop in visitors. Hoteliers have been unable to set up ‘igloo cafes’ to attract tourists to the town, one of Asia's highest ski resorts. 

‘Worse than last year’

Those in the tourism industry, who rely on visitors for their livelihoods, are deeply concerned about this year’s prolonged dry spell. Last year the winter season was completely snowless until February, resulting in empty hotels, barren ski slopes, and quiet markets.

Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster in Kashmir, said, “Last winter, a prolonged dry spell severely impacted hoteliers, travel agents and houseboat owners, highlighting how crucial consistent snowfall is for the region's winter tourism industry.”

Farhat Naik, a 31-year-old snowboarding instructor in Gulmarg, said, “The weather pattern this year is similar to last year’s. El Nino (a climatic phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean) is exacerbating the situation. There is hardly any snow, and it has been an exceptionally dry winter overall,” he said.

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Naik highlighted the significant impact this has had on bookings. “Last year when there was no snow, we saw a noticeable drop in visitors. This year it is even worse as tourists and sports enthusiasts are calling to inquire about the snow before finalising their trips. People are more cautious now. Bookings are on hold and confirmations are pending as everyone is waiting to see if the snow will arrive. I don’t anticipate a large crowd during the Christmas and New Year holidays.”

Jitender Singh, who works at a private firm in New Delhi, told Mint he has never visited Kashmir and is eager to experience the snow with his family this year. “My family and I are eagerly waiting for the news that snow has arrived in Kashmir. As soon as we hear that we will book our tickets,” he said. 

Sports tourism hit hard

Naik said though domestic footfall has increased this year, winter sports tourism has dropped by more than 60% from previous years. “Despite Gulmarg’s international reputation, we have seen a 60% drop in international bookings due to the lack of snow. By 15 December the winter tourism season should have been in full swing, but both this winter and last winter have been disappointingly dry,” he said.

Rauf Tramboo, president of the Travel Agents Association of Kashmir (TAAK), also said while leisure tourism is performing well, recreational tourism has been crippled by the lack of snow. “We typically see snowfall in December, but this year the absence of snow is delaying the start of snow sports in the Valley. We have several snow championships scheduled, but if the snow doesn’t arrive, all these events will have to be canceled,” he said.

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The dry spell has not only impacted snowfall but has also caused water levels in the Valley's famous rivers and lakes, such as the Jhelum, Dal Lake, and Wular Lake, to drop significantly. The picturesque water bodies, which attract tourists throughout the year, now face a severe crisis. In November, the Kashmir Irrigation and Flood Control department reported a water level of -0.82 feet at the Jhelum river station in south Kashmir’s Sangam, the lowest ever recorded there.

Before winter arrived, the Himalayan region was already grappling with a significant rainfall deficit, having recorded only 834.8 mm of rain compared to the normal 1,137.7 mm, according to weather analysts. The situation worsened in October, and according to the Srinagar met department, Kashmir has faced an 86.34% deficit in rain and snowfall from 1 October to 12 December.

Dry spells are more frequent

Arif said dry spells have become more frequent, with the past six winters seeing below-normal precipitation. “Last winter was particularly dry, and was followed by an exceptionally hot summer. This could be attributed to climate change driven by humans and failures in addressing environmental degradation worldwide, ” he added.

Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, director of the Srinagar met department, said while light snow is expected in the higher reaches of Kashmir by 5 January, the plains are likely to remain dry and cloudy. “There is no major or heavy snowfall anticipated in the first week of January. The winter sports season in Gulmarg could be affected by this.”

He attributed the dry conditions to climate change and the ‘La Nina’ effect, which leads to harsher winters and the intense cold waves. When the harsh winter arrived on 21 December, Srinagar recorded its coldest December night in 50 years, with temperatures plummeting to minus 8.5 degrees Celsius, according to the met department. But the snow stayed away.

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Arif said, “Why would tourists come to experience bone-chilling cold if the snow is inconsistent? Even if it snows once or twice in a season, it won't attract a significant number of tourists. Frequent snowfall is crucial for maintaining healthy winter tourism in Kashmir.”

Naik warned the ongoing dry spell could have a drastic, long-term impact. “Every year, 10,000 to 15,000 sports enthusiasts visit from all over the world, but due to the snowless Valley, they are now looking at destinations such as Japan, Kazakhstan and Europe.”

A senior official from the department of tourism in Kashmir said while the flow of tourists is steady, footfall tends to increase significantly during snowfall, which has been absent this year. “The winter snow games are scheduled to be held in January and February, provided there is snowfall. Unfortunately, weather conditions are beyond our control,” the official said.