Mint Explainer: The ripple effects of Trump pulling the plug on Ukraine

Early indicators suggest the US economy is slowing even as US President Donald Trump’s additional import tariffs on China, Canada and Brazil kicked in on Tuesday. Trump also paused military aid to Ukraine on 4 March following a televised clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Oval office last week. Mint looks at what the latest developments mean for Ukraine and the rest of the world.

What does the US’ decision to pause aid mean for Ukraine?

According to reports, the US provisioned $174.2 billion in emergency supplemental funding for Ukraine after Russia invaded the Eastern European country in 2022, of which $110.7 billion was for Ukraine’s Department of Defence. Following Trump’s decision to pause aid to the wartorn country, the road ahead will be tough for Ukraine both militarily and diplomatically.

While Ukraine might be able to put up a fight on the frontlines for a few months more, the pause on further aid will trim its negotiating power on the high table. There is a clear indication that Russia remains off the hook, and the expectation is that Ukraine must kowtow to the Americans—for this is how Real Politik works in world affairs.

Also read | Trump is focused on Ukraine’s critical minerals. Here’s what Ukraine really has.

Will the European Union have to do the heavy lifting now?

In a meeting fixed much before the televised volatility between Trump, US Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, EU leaders gathered in London to show solidarity and support for Zelensky. However, there is a grim realization in the UK and France that the EU still needs the US.

British Prime Minister Kier Starmer said the UK, Ukraine, France and some other nations would form a “coalition of the willing” and draw up a peace plan to take to Trump. Amid this, EU nations like Germany are moving to wrest greater independence from the US, even as the need for greater defence spending by the EU mounts.

Also read | Europe vows to defend Ukraine, but prays for Trump’s support

What does this mean for Russia?

For both the US and Russia, there is now a convergence in the narrative that Ukraine was responsible for the war. Russia could now seal the deal on territorial gains, which, the EU worries, would embolden its mission for territorial expansion. In the process, not just Ukraine stands trimmed down, but also the EU and Nato, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is a military alliance between the US and several European nations.

Also read | Russia-US solidarity at the UN: Will it give peace a chance?

What do all these mean for the global order?

The recent developments may mark a major shift for the liberal global order led and scripted by the West. For some countries in the Global South, this liberal world order was seen as privileging western ways of thinking on norms and institutions. This now stands to scrutiny in the West itself. Long story short, while the current changes could mark a tectonic shift, they could in many ways also be seen as a different form of imperialism—one where, ironically, Russia and US are equal partners.

Is the world heading back to Great Power politics?

In some ways, yes, considering how Russia and the US are upending global consensus. But this is also a moment for rising global powers like India and China to swing power equations by deepening strategic partnerships with the EU and West Asia. India would be watchful of the developing US-Russia alignment. The rules of the game may be reset to favour transactional deal-making over existing norms or institutions.

Shweta Singh is associate professor, Department of International Relations, South Asian University.