Taiwan looks for ways to defend itself as US weapons supply hit by Gaza, Ukraine

PINGTUNG, Taiwan—Taiwan’s military recently set up live-fire exercises on this stretch of coastline facing China to show off half a dozen brand-new Humvee armored vehicles mounted with antitank missile launchers—part of its recent delivery of weapons from the U.S.

But the missiles designed for use with the launchers didn’t arrive with the shipment. Instead, the missiles that the soldiers test-fired into the choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were an older variety with a shorter range.

The missing missiles, not scheduled to land in Taiwan until the end of the year, are among several weapons delivery delays the military has partly attributed to strains on the U.S. defense industry.

The continuing wars in Gaza and Ukraine, both of which involve countries the U.S. supports, have highlighted the limitations of the Western military-industrial base and raised a critical question for Taiwan’s survival: What if the island democracy finds itself short of weapons in the event of a conflict with China?

For decades, Washington has been Taipei’s most important backer, supplying the Taiwanese armed forces with weapons to deter and defend against potential aggression by Beijing. China claims the island as its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force in asserting control over it.

As it churns out weaponry to supply two wars, the American defense industry has struggled with a string of challenges, including shortages of chips, machinery and skilled workers. At one point this year, supply bottlenecks had delayed delivery of weapon systems to Taiwan valued at more than $20 billion, according to Eric Gomez, a defense analyst at the Washington-based Cato Institute.

“The hard truth is that the current U.S. defense-industry base is producing neither enough, nor on time, the hardware to meet global demand,” Taiwan’s Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said in a video call in May with The Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, a group of American lawmakers and investors opposed to Chinese influence in the U.S. tech industry, weeks before she took office.

Hsiao has largely toned down her language since she was sworn in. A series of recent deliveries have reduced the backlog and Taipei said only three out of 18 arms packages are currently behind schedule.

Even so, Taiwan’s government and military continue to face pressure over the island’s ability to rapidly stockpile weapons.

Western arms manufacturers are currently focused on sending more munitions to Ukraine to help it close a yawning gap with Russia, which has bigger stockpiles, was able to quickly increase production and is getting massive shipments of artillery from North Korea.

Unlike Ukraine or Israel, Taiwan’s geography as an island makes resupplying its military a bigger challenge. Military experts in the West are particularly concerned that China could try to force Taiwan to capitulate with a blockade.

“If there’s a blockade, and the war goes on, then eventually Taiwan will run out of weapons,” said Guermantes Lailari, a former U.S. Air Force officer who is now a visiting research fellow at the Taiwan military-backed Institute for National Defense and Security Research. “Taiwan needs to be as independent as possible to be able to replenish its weapon systems.”

Even under normal circumstances, the arms transfer process can take several years due to drawn-out payment, production and delivery processes. A sale of 66 new F-16 jet fighters approved by the Trump administration in 2019 isn’t expected to be completed until 2026.

“In the case of Taiwan, it’s way too long,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R., Texas), the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in response to a question about the delays on a visit to Taipei in May. He said he has put “continuous pressure on the defense contractors and the administration, and the Department of State and Defense to get these defense articles out as quickly as possible.”

The Defense Department is exploring how to speed up foreign military sales and accelerate delivery, a spokesman said, reaffirming U.S. support for Taiwan’s self-defense.

“Expediting the provision of materiel to Taiwan remains one of DOD’s highest priorities,” the spokesman, John Supple, wrote. “We are continuously working to improve factors under the Department’s control, but our challenge in meeting Taiwan’s requirements—and those of other partners—is driven primarily by insufficient defense industrial base capacity.”

Taiwan’s concerns over future weapons shipments date to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, when Hsiao, who was then Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the U.S., sent a warning back to Taipei, according to people familiar with the matter.

One outcome was the establishment of a new military agency, modeled on the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, to improve weapons acquisition and accelerate domestic development of cutting-edge defense technologies.

The agency, which launched in February, will focus its initial attention on technologies like unmanned vehicles, counterdrone systems and AI-powered target recognition, according to Col. Wang Tse-ping, one of the officers tasked with running it. More immediately, he said, it is trying to simplify a tangle of bureaucratic requirements that is slowing down the military’s ability to acquire new technology.

Taiwan, which manufactures most of the world’s advanced semiconductors, is also pushing to be included in the U.S. defense supply chain, according to Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung.

In addition to speeding up delivery in the short term, co-production arrangements could help Taiwan build up the ability to supply its own weapons in the future, advocates argue.

One area where local companies are already equipped to work with American contractors is avionics systems, according to Jennifer Chuang, a senior vice president of Taiwan’s Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation, which builds jet fighters for the Taiwanese Air Force.

If the U.S. were to permit such co-production in Taiwan, Chuang said during an April earnings conference, it would certainly “help us develop the capability of our Taiwanese industry.”

Some U.S. officials have cautioned that Taiwan’s defense industry might not be ready for such an arrangement.

“There’s still some steps in terms of meeting the standards that the U.S. puts down for its defense industrial base that Taiwan private companies would have to meet,” Sandra Oudkirk, the U.S.’s previous de facto ambassador to Taiwan, said during a farewell press conference in June.

A senior Taiwanese official familiar with weapons acquisition efforts said Washington is especially concerned about Chinese espionage in Taiwan and the possibility that advanced defense secrets could be leaked to Beijing.

Cybersecurity is a particular concern, according to the official. In 2022, during a weeklong Chinese military exercise encircling the island, a series of cyberattacks took down several government websites, as well as TV screens at train stations and convenience stores.

In July, Taiwan’s Digital Ministry reported more than 76,000 cyberattack attempts, with 43% aimed at intelligence collection, according to the head of the ministry’s administration for cybersecurity.

The small size of Taiwan’s defense industry is another obstacle. Many of the island’s defense contractors seem reluctant to invest in the expansion needed to join with the U.S. in a meaningful way, according to Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.

“It requires patience, a lot of upfront capital. This is very different from the way in which Taiwan does business,” he said.

Even if Taiwanese defense companies are willing to build up capacity, some military analysts question whether Taiwan can afford to wait for that process to unfold.

It is more efficient for the island to concentrate on producing ammunition, which is simpler and addresses an existing shortfall in U.S. supplies, according to Ivan Kanapathy, a former U.S. government military adviser in Taiwan.

“The critical factor is having enough munitions here on the island that China believes Taiwan can continue to resist for several weeks,” he said.

Nancy Youssef contributed to this article.

Write to Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com