Israel’s demilitarization demand tests Syria’s shaky government

Israel’s demand for the demilitarization of southern Syria near its border presents a severe challenge for the country’s new rulers, who three months ago brought down the Assad family’s regime.

Israel launched airstrikes late Tuesday at targets south of Damascus that it said contained weapons or command centres, just days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech that the area must be completely disarmed and that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that took over the government, wouldn’t be allowed in areas of southern Syria near the Israeli border.

The demands and airstrikes reflected Israel’s new calculus after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that left 1,200 dead and shook the Middle East. Analysts say the country is seeking to create buffer zones along its borders to prevent similar attacks.

Yet they also put Syria’s new government in a bind, forcing it to choose between confronting a much stronger Israel or surrendering control of some of its territory. Either option risks destabilizing a transition in which the government must convince other rebel and sectarian groups that it is able to lead the country.

Tuesday’s attacks came hours after Syria’s government reacted to Netanyahu’s demands by condemning the Israeli army’s seizure of territory and demanding its immediate withdrawal.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the air force is “vigorously attacking southern Syria as part of the new policy we have defined of demilitarization.”

“We will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon,” Katz said, voicing a concern that the territory could be used as a staging ground for attacks like those the Lebanese militia Hezbollah has pulled off for decades along Israel’s northern border.

Israel sent its troops into southern Syria shortly after the Assad regime fell and conducted an extensive bombing campaign that wiped out much of the former army and navy’s equipment and air defenses, but drew only muted reactions from the new government.

Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has shown no signs of challenging those moves militarily. But a key element of statehood for any government is the ability to protect its borders, and Israel’s demilitarization demands are highly unlikely to be accepted by Syria’s leadership. They also could make it harder for the new leadership to unify the county.

“Israel’s actions are preventing Damascus from consolidating full control over Syria, especially the south, and it is contributing to instability in an already fragile postwar country,” said Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group.

The new administration held what it called a national dialogue this week to bring the country’s various factions together. It is due to begin forming a new, more representative government soon.

Analysts said more military assaults by Israel could weaken the Syrian leadership’s authority across the country, as well as open it up to internal splits and rivals who could pose their own threats to Israel. The assaults and pressure to demilitarize the south could prompt communities in other parts of Syria to demand autonomy. Armed groups and factions thinking of joining the government could decide to take a wait-and-see attitude if they sense the government doesn’t have a handle on the country.

“If this government is weakened too much, then it cannot control the more radical elements from spilling over and destabilizing neighboring countries,” Hawach said.

Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, attended a national dialogue in Damascus on Tuesday.

Israel is also courting Syria’s minority Druze population, which has strong connections to Druze communities inside Israel. The Syrian Druze are mostly located in three provinces that border the Golan Heights. While a minority have declared a desire to secede from Syria and be annexed by Israel, many Druze leaders have denounced any move toward secession.

Israel’s posture in southern Syria is driven by decades of enmity with Syria and a deep mistrust of Sharaa by the military and security establishment. The 42-year-old Sharaa was once aligned with al Qaeda, and while he has sworn off extremism and repeatedly said he wants an inclusive government, his administration is dominated by Islamists, and the group he commands is still designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and European Union.

Sharaa and HTS led a rebel alliance that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December. Since then, he has traded his military fatigues for dark suits and visited Arab capitals, seeking to get sanctions lifted so he can rebuild the country. But the jury is still out on Sharaa for Israel’s leaders, some Arab governments and many in the West who remain suspicious about his ideological past and links to Turkey.

“Some people in Israel say, respect and suspect. I say, suspect and suspect,” said Avner Golov, former senior director for foreign policy at Israel’s National Security Council. “Even though I see his face smiling, saying the right words, we should still put him to the test.”

Tensions have grown since Netanyahu’s speech on Sunday, in which he called for “the complete demilitarization of southern Syria.” That touched off anti-Israeli protests in several southern areas, culminating in the Syrian leadership’s denunciation of the statements as provocative and accusing Israel of violating Syria’s sovereignty.

Golov said Israel’s military forays in southern Syria should be coupled with diplomatic initiatives through a regional coalition including, for example, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, along with offers aimed at persuading the Syrian leadership to distance itself from Iran and Turkey in exchange for the removal of sanctions or funds to rebuild the country.

“Syria is not stable, and I’m not sure what Israel is doing will help, assist or hinder efforts to stabilize Syria,” Golov said. “We might create an Israeli problem, but it’s not like we are pushing the region to become more unstable than what it already is.”