A guide to China’s role in the fentanyl crisis as Trump targets Beijing

BEIJING—President Trump wants to slap an additional 10% tariff on imports from China over its role in the fentanyl trade, arguing that Beijing could help fix America’s drug crisis if only it stopped dragging its feet.

If cutting off the production and export of chemicals used to make fentanyl could get Beijing in Trump’s good books and prevent a new trade war, then why wouldn’t China do it?

The answer cuts to the heart of why the war against fentanyl has been so intractable, owing to a lack of trust between the U.S. and China and the whack-a-mole nature of stamping out the chemicals used to make the drug.

Whether Trump’s pressure tactics with China work over the coming weeks and months will help determine whether he can make progress on resolving a drug-overdose crisis that leaves tens of thousands of Americans dead every year.

President Trump plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

Is China to blame for the U.S. fentanyl crisis?

China denies it is at fault for the crisis, instead attributing the problem to the U.S.’s failure to curb domestic addiction.

But U.S. officials and many experts say that China bears significant responsibility. For years, Chinese firms sold the black-market fentanyl that reached U.S. drug users. More recently, their role has been as the main suppliers of the ingredients used to make fentanyl.

U.S. frustration with China on the issue runs deep. Secretary of State Marco Rubio questioned in recent days whether Beijing was intentionally working to flood the U.S. with drugs.

“You have to wonder in some cases, is this a deliberate thing, like are they flooding us with fentanyl?” Rubio said in an interview on Fox News.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded on Friday that Rubio’s comments were “full of Cold War thinking.”

On the U.S. president’s coming tariffs, Lin said the U.S. was using fentanyl as an excuse to impose tariffs on China and promised that Beijing would respond to protect itself.

Chinese officials have said in recent weeks that U.S. tariffs make them less likely to help solve the fentanyl problem—framing their willingness to cooperate on counternarcotics as a matter of goodwill that can be turned on and off.

“Beijing sees fentanyl cooperation as a favor to the U.S. that they are willing to offer when there is an understanding in place that both sides seek stability in the relationship,” said Amanda Hsiao, director of the political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group’s China practice.

What has China done to address the fentanyl problem?

China has met some U.S. demands over the years, such as effectively barring the production and sale of fentanyl in 2019 in a bid to stave off tariffs during Trump’s first term.

Before then, Chinese-made fentanyl was flooding onto U.S. streets. After China’s ban took effect, Chinese fentanyl on the black market all but dried up. That moment showed how China, at times, is willing to help the U.S. fight fentanyl when it believes doing so is in its interests.

But China’s role in the fentanyl crisis didn’t end in 2019. More recently, Chinese companies have emerged as the leading producers of the chemical ingredients used to make fentanyl. Known as “precursors,” the chemicals are sold over the internet today, flowing from China to criminal groups in Mexico and elsewhere that produce fentanyl and traffic it into the U.S.

Why hasn’t China done more to crack down on chemicals used to make fentanyl?

China’s vast capacity for manufacturing chemicals and its competitiveness as an exporter helped it carve out a lucrative niche in the illicit drug market.

Beijing’s foot-dragging in placing regulations on fentanyl precursors meant that producers could operate relatively out in the open with little fear of arrest.

China doesn’t have a drug problem on a level anywhere near that of the U.S. That has made it less urgent for Beijing to go after precursor sellers, especially when Chinese officials believe that the U.S. is disrespecting China.

China tends to use counternarcotics cooperation as leverage over the U.S. when relations sour. In 2021, for example, after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) visited Taiwan despite China’s objections, Beijing cut off all fentanyl cooperation with the U.S. for well over a year.

In 2022, three key precursors—known as 4-AP, 1-boc-4-AP and norfentanyl—were placed on a blacklist by the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs, a designation that required China to take corresponding steps domestically to control the chemicals.

It took China more than two years to follow through, a period in which the U.S. struggled to curb fentanyl flowing across the southern border. Under pressure from the Biden administration, China imposed restrictions on the precursors last year.

As the U.S. and China sought to stabilize ties under former President Joe Biden, American officials reported that precursors being seized at U.S. airports were beginning to drop, a potentially positive sign as Beijing simultaneously ramped up a campaign against domestic precursor producers.

A Mexican National Guard camp next to the Mexico-U.S. border.Canada Border Services Agency officers inspect items at an air cargo facility.

What else could China do to combat the fentanyl crisis?

One problem with individually regulating precursors is that producers can always alter the makeup of the chemicals they sell to disguise them. U.S. prosecutors say some Chinese firms add “masking molecules” to precursors to make them appear as new substances. Some go as far as to give their clients instructions on how to remove the molecules to make fentanyl.

The Biden administration pushed China to implement “know your customer” requirements that would seek to stop Chinese firms from doing business with the Mexican cartels. Beijing has indicated that it is reluctant to place such new requirements on Chinese companies.

A potentially simpler approach would be getting Beijing to more forcefully implement the rules already on its books.

To try to appease the U.S., China could increase arrests and prosecutions of known precursor sellers, publicizing them to scare off other illicit chemical producers.

The challenge for the U.S. is that even if Trump’s tariff threats did lead China to wipe out the country’s precursor sellers, experts say that chemical producers elsewhere—especially in India—stand ready to take their place.

Write to Brian Spegele at Brian.Spegele@wsj.com