Delhi Election 2025: Will voters stick to contrasting voting choices or opt for change on February 5?

People usually vote differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Voters rarely choose the same party in both Assembly polls and general elections.

Delhi, with Assembly polls scheduled next month, is a classic example of the distinction in voting behaviour between the two elections, as seen in the past few decades.

The election for the 70-member Delhi Assembly is scheduled for February 5, with results to be announced on February 8. The contest in the national capital is three-cornered: the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is up against a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the once-dominant Congress party.

Delhi Assembly since 1993

Delhi’s Legislative Assembly was established in 1993. Prior to that, Delhi was a metropolitan council with no legislative powers. The BJP has come to power only once in the Delhi assembly since 1993. The Congress ruled Delhi for three consecutive terms from 1998 to 2013. The AAP came to power first in 2013 – for 49 days – and then for two terms in 2015 and 2020.

The different voting behaviour in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections can be traced back to 1998, the year the second assembly election was held in Delhi.

BJP’s Dominance in Lok Sabha

Delhi has seven Lok Sabha seats. The BJP, out of power in the Delhi assembly since 1998, has dominated the Lok Sabha elections held in Delhi. Of the eight Lok Sabha polls held since 1993, the BJP dominated six, while the Congress did well in two as far as the performance in the national capital is concerned.

In the February 1998 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won six of the seven seats in the national capital, while the Congress won one seat.

In the Delhi Assembly Elections held in November of the same year, the Congress won the polls, bagging 52 seats in the 70-member house with a 47.76 per cent vote share. The election marked the beginning of Sheila Dikshit's tenure as Chief Minister of Delhi. The BJP, under Sushma Swaraj, won just 5 seats with a 34.02 per cent vote share in the 1998 Delhi assembly polls.

The BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats in the national capital in the 1999 parliamentary elections.

The 2003 and 2008 Exception

The Congress, under Sheila Dikshit's leadership, won the next two assembly elections in Delhi. It won 47 seats with 48 per cent vote share in 2003 and 43 seats with a 40.3 per cent vote share in 2008 assembly polls.

In the two Lok Sabha election held after the two assembly polls in Delhi (2004 and 2009,) the Congress did well in the national capital in terms of Lok Sabha seats. The party won six Lok Sabha seats in 2004 with a 54.8 per cent vote share and won all seven Lok Sabha seats in 2009 with 57.1 per cent vote share.

The Assembly Election Pattern

The AAP, which has been in power in Delhi since 2013, had not won any Lok Sabha seat in the national capital in any Lok Sabha election held since then.

The BJP has won all seven Lok Sabha seats in the national capital in 2014, 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In 2014, with all seven seats, the BJP polled 46.6 per cent votes in the national capital. The AAP, which had won 28 seats in its debut election, came second in all the constituencies. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party bagged 33 per cent of the votes. The Congress finished third with 15 per cent vote share.

Assembly elections in Delhi were held again in February 2015, nine months after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The AAP secured a landslide with 67 out of 70 seats with a 54.34 percent vote share. The BJP won just three assembly seats with 32.1 per cent vote share. The Congress won no seats with 10 per cent vote share.

Next assembly election was held in February 2020, months after BJP’s landslide at the Centre in 2019 Lok Sabha polls in which the saffron party won all seven seats with 56.5 per cent vote share.

The AAP secured 62 seats with 53.57 per cent of the vote, while the BJP won eight seats with 38.51 per cent vote share in assembly polls. The Congress's vote share dropped to 4.2 per cent without any seats in the Delhi assembly.

The February 5 Election

The Delhi Election 2025 is being held in February, months after the Lok Sabha election 2024, which saw the BJP again win all 7 parliamentary seats in the national capital with a vote share of 54 per cent.

Will the voters follow the past voting trend for different parties in the state? Or will Delhi buck the trend this time? The results to be announced on February 8 will make it clear.