Delhi Election 2025: Vote share intact, yet out of power for 27 years – what’s dragging the BJP in the national capital?

Delhi Election 2025: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been out of power in Delhi for 27 years.

The last BJP chief minister in Delhi was the late Sushma Swaraj, who held the top post for 52 days in 1998. Since then, the BJP has lost six consecutive assembly polls – 1998, 2003 and 2008 – to the Congress and 2013, 2015 and 2020 – to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The Election Commission of India announced the schedule earlier this week. The election to the 70-member Delhi assembly is scheduled for February 5 and results will be announced on February 8.

The BJP is making all-out attempts to come back to power in Delhi after 27 years, focusing on its slogan “parivartan” (change) and a targeted campaign against the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP over corruption allegations during its ten-year rule.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing a rally in the capital’s Rohini area last week, gave a call for change. “Aapda (AAP) nahi sahenge, badal kar rahenge” (won't tolerate the disaster (AAP), will bring change),” Modi said, coining BJP’s poll slogan for the upcoming elections.

A peek into the BJP’s strengths and weaknesses in this election:

Consistent Vote Share

The saffron party has a strong organisational presence up to booth level in all 70 assembly segments. Months ahead of the polls, the BJP held thousands of small outreach meetings with targeted groups and communities, focusing on slums and unauthorised colonies.

The BJP may not have been in power, but its vote share has remained more or less intact – above 30 per cent in the last six assembly elections it lost. In 2015, when the AAP swept Delhi elections winning 67 seats, the party had managed a vote share of 32.19 per cent but won just three seats . In the 2020 Delhi Election, when it won eight seats, the BJP’s vote share was 38.51 per cent.

Another aspect that has worked in BJP’s favour is the fact that it has been winning all seven Lok Sabha seats of Delhi since 2014.

Anti-incumbency, Corruption Charges Against Arvind Kejriwal

The BJP has launched a sustained campaign for change in public perception by highlighting corruption issues like “Sheesh Mahal” and liquor scam while Arvind Kejriwal was chief minister. Kejriwal stepped down in September last year.

The party has also effectively raised civic issues like water scarcity, the supply of polluted water, air pollution, waterlogging during rains, damaged roads, and poor public bus transport.

There has been a general anti-incumbency against the AAP, ruling Delhi since 2013. The BJP seeks to take advantage of this by issuing ‘charge sheets’ listing the failures of AAP MLAs in various constituencies.

Modi’s Face

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leading BJP’s aggressive campaign in Delhi. Modi pitted his Union government’s model against AAP’s model, in his two speeches so far while pushing for a ‘double engine’ government – the same party ruling Centre and state.

The BJP has also been buoyed by its recent performance in elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. It would like to extend its winning streak in Delhi in February 5 polls, too.

No CM Face

The biggest drawback of the BJP campaign in Delhi has been the absence of a popular face compared to the Congress’s Sheila Dikshit and AAP’s Kejriwal.

The saffron party projected former IPS officer Kiran Bedi as its face in 2015. Bedi had been a key part of Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement. The move did not work. The BJP lost the elections despite a national wave in its favour in 2014.

No Counter to Welfare Schemes, Betting Big on Turncoats

The BJP has so far failed to make announcements to address AAP's promises, such as honorariums to women and priests. Modi also said that if the BJP comes to power, it will not stop the welfare schemes that the AAP has implemented in the national capital in its last two terms.

The BJP has a poor record of victory in 12 reserved and eight minority-dominated seats. The party failed to win even one of these seats in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi assembly polls.

The BJP has an uphill task against the AAP, which has a strong support base in the slums, unauthorised colonies, minority-dominated areas, and lower-middle-class localities. 

The BJP has been betting big on turncoats from the AAP and the Congress. The party has so far fielded eight outsiders who switched to the party from AAP and Congress. Some party leaders claim this has caused dissent among local BJP leaders and workers in such constituencies.

(With PTI inputs)