US Fed Meet Highlights: Markets rally after Jerome Powell-led FOMC signals 50 bps rate cut this year

US Fed Meeting Highlights: Here are the key takeaways of today's FOMC verdict-

1. US central bank held the benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25% - 4.50% for the second straight meeting in March 2025
2. Jerome Powell-led FOMC eyes two interest rate cuts and will likely bring the borrowing rate lower by half a percentage point in the remainder of the year.
3. In its dot plot projection, the central bank raised the year-end US inflation forecast to 2.7% and downgraded the US economic growth estimate to 1.7%.
4. US Fed said it will slow the pace of its balance sheet drawdown next month. The mortgage-backed securities cap will hold steady at the current $35 billion limit.
5. Wall Street rallied sharply after the US Fed held rates steady and projected two rate cuts ahead, driven by tech-heavy Nasdaq. The US stock market posted its best Fed day in eight months (since July 2024)

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The US Fed held rates steady but, in a surprise move, lowered its growth forecasts and flagged upside risks to inflation and unemployment. The dots suggest 50 bps worth of rate cuts this year, but what was noteworthy is that all FOMC members felt increasing price pressures were a real risk. In a way, the risk of stagflation - slow growth and elevated inflation - is what the Fed acknowledged.

Stocks, including domestic equities, have rallied largely, as slow growth would mean more rate cuts, but that expectation is not on solid footing because of the tariff-related uncertainty, which Powell also flagged clearly. That said, the broader benchmarks - NSE 500, small-caps, and mid-caps have broken above their respective falling channels and have generated bullish reversal patterns in what has historically been a bullish period, seasonally speaking, said Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities.

US Fed Meeting LIVE:  The US Fed kept the interest rates unchanged in this meeting. This is at par with the industry expectations, especially at a time when economic instability persists. The decision follows the inflation trend which Fed expects to rise as well as the economic growth which is speculated to soften in the near future. Moreover, the ongoing tariff threats by Trump is expected to play a dampener for growth. In terms of gold, it is currently in a bullish phase, having the potential to scale new levels. Spot gold hits an all-time high of $3,051.99/oz. Fed is likely to resume rate cuts in June where it hinted at two rate cuts in 2025. Hence, we reiterate our view of gold touching $3,100 globally and ₹91,000 domestically, said Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The Fed policy guidance remained same despite changing macros which is currently being perceived positively by the investors. The Fed’s ability to cut rates will largely depend on tariffs and their repercussions on inflation. Our continued positive bias on precious metals is materializing. China held the PLR rate constant following the Fed. On the domestic front, RBI has started with liquidity easing and the rationale for another 25 bps rate cut in April is compelling, said Ankita Pathak, Fund Manager - Global Equities & Macro Strategist at Ionic Asset by Angel One.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: By keeping rates unchanged, the Fed is balancing the need to combat inflation versus concerns about growth. This framework signals the Fed's determination to achieve price stability as well as the flexibility it wishes to have to respond to future developments in the economy, said Trivesh, COO Tradejini.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed mounting growth concerns and the price hits that could be on the way from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade war, Bloomberg reported. “As I’ve mentioned, it can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it’s going to go away quickly without action by us, if it’s transitory,” Powell said speaking to reporters following a two-day meeting of policymakers. He called that scenario the “base case,” but then hedged, saying officials “really can’t know” if the effect will be temporary.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, opened higher on Thursday, following gains in global markets, after the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The Sensex opened 468.06 points, or 0.62%, higher at 75,917.11, while the Nifty 50 gained 129.00 points, or 0.56%, to open at 23,036.60.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: While the cautiously optimistic Fed has eased some market pressure, we feel EM assets will be in a push and pull phase, where a generally weakening DXY would be countered by higher global uncertainty. That said, we think that changing global narrative on growth and tariff noises may allow EM central banks, including the RBI, to be less defensive on the FX fight, implying some policy flexibility on rate settings in general, said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

She expects RBI to cut repo rate in April, with a possibility of one further rate cut ahead,

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US President Donald Trump urged the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday to cut interest rates to help offset effects of his tariffs, renewing his vocal disagreement with the central bank's decision-making, AFP reported. “Do the right thing,” Trump demanded in a Wednesday night post on his Truth Social site, hours after the Fed decided to hold rates steady, while reducing its growth forecast and hiking its inflation outlook. 

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Treasury yields fell as policymakers indicated they anticipate the Fed funds target rate will be reduced by 50 basis points this year. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 3.3 basis points to 4.249%, while the 30-year bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.5593%. The 2-year note yield fell 6.3 basis points to 3.979%.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: China held benchmark lending rates steady for the fifth straight month in March, following the US Federal Reserve. The People’s Bank of China kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%. The PBOC has kept its 7-day rate, the country’s main policy rate, steady at 1.5%.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Asian markets traded higher on Thursday following overnight rally on Wall Street after the US Fed policy. Japan markets are closed for a holiday. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.64%, while the Kosdaq gained 0.55%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a tepid opening.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Gold prices surged to a record high after the US Federal Reserve policy. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,052.92 an ounce. Bullion reached an all-time high of $3,055.31 per ounce earlier in the session. US gold futures gained 0.7% to $3,061.00.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Jerome Powell-led FOMC will meet next on May 6-7 to deliberate on the next set of monetary policy discussions.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Here are the key highlights of today's FOMC verdict-

1.US central bank held the benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50 per cent for the second straight meeting in March 2025 

2.Jerome Powell-led FOMC eyes two interest rate cuts and will likely bring the borrowing rate lower by half a percentage point in the remainder of the year

3.In its dot plot projection, the central bank raised the year-end US inflation forecast to 2.7 per cent and downgraded the US economic growth estimate to 1.7 per cent.

4.US Fed said it will slow pace of balance sheet drawdown next month. The mortgage-backed securities cap will hold steady at the current $35 billion limit.

5.Wall Street rallied sharply after the US Fed held rates steady and projected two rate cuts ahead, driven by tech-heavy Nasdaq. The US stock market posted its best Fed day in eight months (since July 2024)

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The Fed said that as part of the reduction in the pace of quantitative tightening, or QT, the monthly cap of Treasuries that will be allowed to mature and not be replaced will be ratcheted down to $5 billion per month from the prior $25 billion monthly cap, effective on April 1. 

The mortgage-backed securities cap will hold steady at the current $35 billion limit. Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissented against the shift in the balance sheet drawdown.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. 

“The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals,” said the FOMC in its statement

“The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments,” added FOMC.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Wall Street's main three indices all rise sharply, led by the Nasdaq's 1.4 per cent rally.

-All 10 sectors on the S&P 500 close in the green, led by the 1.8 per cent spike in consumer cyclicals.

-US Treasury yields fell by six basis points at the short end, with the yield curve bull-flattening.

-The yen briefly falls back through 150.00 per dollar for the first time in three weeks, before recovering late in the US session as part of the broader dollar selloff.

-The US dollar index recovers from Tuesday's five-month low, but halves its gains after Powell's press conference.

-Gold jumps 0.5 per cent to a fresh high of $3,052/oz.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The S&P 500 jumped 1.1 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 383 points or 0.9 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.4 per cent. 

Nvidia helped support the market after rising 1.8 per cent to cut its year's loss to 12.5 per cent. Tesla rose 4.7 per cent, following two straight losses of roughly five per cent. It’s still down 41.6 per cent for 2025 so far. 

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The jump in stocks, the biggest for any US Fed day since July, follows a bruising four-week stretch in which the S&P 500 slid into a correction. Treasuries saw an abrupt reversal, with two-year yields sinking below four per cent. The S&P 500 rose 1.1 per cent. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9 per cent.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.25 per cent. The US dollar pared its advance to 0.2 per cent. Bond yields dropped after the US Fed gave a dovish outlook for the monetary policy in the rest of the year.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Gold prices soared to an all-time high, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and as the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as anticipated, but signaled a possible reduction in borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

Spot gold rose 0.5 per cent to $3,047.80 per ounce as of 03:57 p.m. ET (1957 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $3,051.99 earlier in the session. US gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $3,041.20. Spot silver fell 0.7 per cent to $33.79 an ounce, platinum slipped 0.3 per cent to $994.15 and palladium fell 0.8 per cent to $959.54.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US stocks bounced after Treasury yields slipped over the FOMC verdict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 383.32 points, or 0.92 per cent to 41,964.63, S&P 500 gained 60.63 points, or 1.08 per cent to 5,675.29 and Nasdaq Composite rose 246.67 points, or 1.41 per cent to 17,750.79.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Jerome Powell, at the news conference, said that Donald Trump's tariffs have started to push up inflation a bit and would likely stall out the progress the central bank has seen in reducing inflation in recent years.

“I think we were getting closer and closer" to price stability, Powell said. "I wouldn’t say we were at that. ... I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed.” But he added that the US Fed does still expect inflation to get back nearly two per cent by the end of next year.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Treasury yields fell after the US Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Wednesday they still anticipate reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year, scuttling some expectations that this projection could be reduced to only one 25-basis-point cut.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last down 2.9 basis points at 4.252 per cent. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 5.9 basis points to 3.983 per cent. The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around three basis points to 27 basis points.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Wall Street stocks rose after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but pointed to increased economic uncertainty as Treasury bond yields tumbled. All three major indices added to gains following the US Fed's press release announcing the decision and press conference with US Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The S&P 500 finished up 1.1 per cent at 5,675.29.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The US dollar pared gains against the euro after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, but indicated policymakers expect to cut borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year. The dollar was last up 3.6 per cent against the lira at 37.97 after rising to a record high of 42 earlier in the session.

The US currency was 0.3 per cent lower against the Japanese yen at 148.85, after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady earlier on Wednesday. Against the US dollar, the euro was down 0.3 per cent to $1.0912 after slipping as low as $1.0860, earlier in the session.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: European stocks closed higher, notching their fourth consecutive session of gains buoyed by Germany's debt overhaul as investors focused on the Fed. Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 4.30 points, or 0.20 per cent.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 6.68 points, or 0.80 per cent, to 846.21. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.19 per cent, while Emerging market stocks fell 1.89 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 1,143.28. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed lower by 0.13 per cent, to 594.22, while Japan's Nikkei fell 93.54 points, or 0.25 per cent, to 37,751.88.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US stocks bounced higher after the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged but hinted that it would reduce borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of the year.

Gold flipped positive, and US Treasury yields pared gains after the central bank marked up its inflation expectations over US President Donald Trump's tariff rollouts and lowered its economic outlook for the year. All three US stock indexes gained upward momentum, with tech stocks taking the lead and boosting the Nasdaq's advance above one per cent. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 347.67 points, or 0.84 per cent, to 41,928.98, the S&P 500 rose 62.12 points, or 1.09 per cent, to 5,676.81 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 266.78 points, or 1.51 per cent, to 17,768.99.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that inflation has started to rise in part due to US President Donald Trump's tariffs, although stressing that it is tough to isolate the effects of levies on price increases. "Clearly some of it, a good part of it, is coming from tariffs," Powell noted, adding that "there may be a delay in further progress" on inflation over the course of this year.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was too soon to determine whether to look through the impact US tariffs would have on inflation, and it would be challenging to determine how much of any goods price increases are attributable to tariffs.

Powell told a news conference after the US Fed held rates steady that there was little policy signal from tariffs, and much would depend on how quickly any tariff-related inflation moved through the economy and whether inflation expectations stayed well-anchored.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Gold prices edged higher to hover near all-time highs on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve stayed put on rates as widely expected and indicated reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $3,039.09 per ounce as of 02:17 p.m. ET (1817 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $3,045.24 earlier in the session. US gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $3,041.20. 

Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of inflation or economic volatility, has climbed over 15 per cent so far this year. Spot silver fell 1.2 per cent to $33.63 an ounce, platinum slipped 0.4 per cent to $993.35 and palladium fell 0.7 per cent to $960.23.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US government bonds erased earlier losses after Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates steady, as expected, while trimming their economic growth and boosting their inflation forecasts.

Treasury yields fell from near session highs. The two-year note’s, more sensitive than longer-dated tenors to changes in expectations for US monetary policy, was around 4.01 per cent after peaking above 4.08 per cent.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US stocks added to gains on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged. The central bank and investors continue to assess how US President Donald Trump's tariff policies might affect economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 228.44 points, or 0.55 per cent, to 41,808.20, the S&P 500 gained 46.76 points, or 0.82 per cent, to 5,660.52 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 213.23 points, or 1.18 per cent, to 17,715.71. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 1.63-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.66-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the possibility of a recession has edged up from very low levels, amid ongoing jitters that Donald Trump's economic policies might trigger a downturn. "If you go back two months people were saying that the likelihood of a recession was extremely low. So it has moved up but it's not high," Powell told reporters at a press conference.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The US Federal Reserve said it will start shrinking its balance sheet at a slower pace starting next month, reducing the amount of bond holdings it lets roll off every month.

US Fed officials will lower the cap starting April 1 on the amount of Treasuries allowed to mature without being reinvested to $5 billion from $25 billion. The US Fed will leave the cap on mortgage-backed securities unchanged at $35 billion.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Taking stock of the Trump administration's rollout of tariffs, Fed officials marked up their outlook for inflation this year, with their preferred measure of price increases expected to end the year at 2.7 per cent versus the 2.5 per cent pace anticipated in December. They also marked down the outlook for economic growth for this year from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, with higher unemployment by the end of this year.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he is carefully reviewing data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which showed a big gain in expected inflation.

"We look at it. We don't dismiss data that we don't like," Powell said in the press conference. But he added the number is "an outlier compared to market-based and compared to other survey-based assessments of longer-run inflation expectations."

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday tariffs may already be driving up prices and purchasing for goods. "At the same time, it is "hard to trace" recent strong inflation and buying to the tariffs, it is "very possible" it is related and could be driven by people buying goods to get ahead of the Trump administration's agenda of import taxes," said Jerome Powell.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The US Federal Reserve may see delays this year in its effort to make further progress on inflation, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, noting inflation has started to move up, partly in response to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that uncertainty is "unusually elevated" currently, as the central bank held interest rates steady after its latest two-day policy meeting. Powell added at a press conference that "policy is not on a pre-set course," saying that officials will adjust their stance as the world's biggest economy evolves.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US Fed policymakers voted to hold the US central bank's key lending rate at between 4.25 per cent and 4.50 per cent. They also cut their growth forecast for 2025 and hiked their inflation outlook while still pencilling in two rate cuts this year -- in line with their previous forecast in December. 

The US Fed's vote was not unanimous, with one governor rebelling in opposition to his colleagues' decision to slow the pace at which the U Fed shrinks the size of its balance sheet. US government bonds erased earlier losses after US Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates steady, as expected, while trimming economic growth and boosting th inflation forecasts.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: Gold prices edged higher to hover near all-time highs on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve stayed put on rates as widely expected and indicated reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year.

Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $3,039.09 per ounce as of 02:17 p.m. ET (1817 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $3,045.24 earlier in the session. US gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $3,041.20.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The US Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts again on Wednesday and noted increased economic uncertainty as it navigates an economy unnerved by Donald Trump's stop-start tariff policies.

US Fed policymakers voted to hold the US central bank's key lending rate at between 4.25 per cent and 4.50 per cent, the US Fed announced in a statement. They also cut their growth outlook for 2025, and hiked their inflation forecasts, while penciling in two rate cuts this year -- in line with their previous forecast in December.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: US job growth picked up in February, but cracks emerged in the once-resilient labour market amid the chaotic trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts that threaten economic growth this year.

The Labor Department's employment report, the first under Trump's watch, showed a broader measure of unemployment surging to near a 3-1/2-year high last month as the ranks of part-time workers swelled.

Underscoring the softening labor market trend, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent from four per cent in January. The labor force participation rate fell to a two-year low of 62.4 per cent from 62.6 per cent in January.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: According to Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst, Reliance Securities, "If the US Fed maintains a hawkish stance, delaying or limiting rate cuts, the US dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on gold and crude oil. 

However, gold may still find support due to its safe-haven appeal in times of economic uncertainty. On the other hand, crude oil prices could receive some support from optimism around potential stimulus measures in China.
 

Technical Levels to Watch

MCX Gold April Contract: Expected to trade between ₹86,500 and ₹88,500.

MCX Crude April Contract: Likely to fluctuate between ₹5,800 and ₹6,000.

Traders and investors should closely follow the US Fed’s announcements, as they will provide key insights into the future path of monetary policy and its impact on financial markets.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: European stocks gained for a fourth straight day as investors weighed progress on a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Their focus will turn to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision later today.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 per cent by the close. Energy and retail stocks outperformed, while chemicals and telecoms were the biggest laggards. Swiss watchmaker Swatch Group AG advanced 1.5 per cent after its chief executive officer said he hopes the firm will be taken private.

The Stoxx 600 is on track to beat the S&P 500 by about 19 percentage points in dollar terms in the first quarter — its biggest outperformance on record, boosted by an improving economic and political outlook.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: “Markets widely anticipate that the US Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent during its meeting. While no immediate cuts are expected, investors are pricing in deeper reductions later this year as inflation eases, with US inflation falling to 2.8 per cent in February due to lower gasoline and fuel oil prices

The US Fed’s dot plot, which outlines policymakers’ rate projections, will be closely watched for future guidance. However, caution remains as Trump’s tariff policies could reintroduce inflationary pressures, influencing future Fed decisions," said Mayank Mundhra, FRM- VP Risk & Head Research Abans Financial Services Ltd.

In the December Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials had pencilled in two rate cuts for this year, according to the median estimate. Economists generally expect the central bank will continue to signal two reductions for 2025 in the so-called “dot plot”.

Many Fed watchers expect the updated forecasts to show officials marked down their estimates for growth this year and upped their projections for a key gauge of inflation, compared to December. Some also expect officials to raise their unemployment projections.

“The US Federal Reserve’s signal on the interest rates will have a major bearing on the gold and crude oil prices. If the US Fed hints at cutting rates, decreasing bonds yields and falling dollar would propel gold prices upwards. A hawkish approach, on the other hand, would make the dollar strong and put more pressure on gold prices,” said Dr Bharath Supra Associate Professor (School Of Business Management), NMIMS Navi Mumbai.

"For crude, the US Fed’s move impacts the economic growth and demand. Rising interest rates might slow down the economy, lowering energy consumption and putting a lid on the increase in oil prices. While a dovish stance can weaken the dollar making the oil expensive for purchasers. The crude market will definitely be paying attention to Powell’s cues," added Dr Supra.

US Fed Meeting LIVE: According to Wall Street analysts, Trump's tariff policies also threaten US economic growth, and US inflation can likely quicken due to rising price pressures in the next few months. Traders see the US Fed lowering borrowing costs by at least two 25-basis point cuts by December, with the first expected in July.

"The evolving outlook is totally unpredictable thanks to the trade war. The US Fed will likely keep the rate unchanged in its decision. The 2024 December dot plot indicated two rate cuts in 2025, down from four in September. 

A slowing US economy might warrant more cuts. Still, the Fed is unlikely to indicate so since it will be in a tight spot if the US economy moves towards stagflation, which is a likely scenario,” said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities said, “The US Fed meeting comes at a time when US GDP growth is showing signs of slowing, while inflation remains persistent. Investors are also increasingly concerned about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and federal job cuts, which could heighten recession risks.”