Rising food inflation: Thali costs soar 7% YoY on pricey staples like potatoes, tomatoes

The cost of a home-cooked vegetarian meal, or thali, climbed 7% year-on-year in November, driven by a sharp rise in vegetable prices, rating agency Crisil Ltd said on Thursday. Key kitchen staples like potatoes and tomatoes—making up 26% of the thali’s cost—saw significant price hikes, fuelling the increase.

However, there was some respite: the cost of a vegetarian thali, at ₹32.70, was 2% lower than in October. In contrast, the cost of a non-vegetarian thali rose 2% year-on-year to ₹61.50 but held steady sequentially.

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Tomato prices surged 35% year-on-year to ₹53 per kg, up from ₹40, while potato prices jumped 50% to ₹37 per kg, compared to ₹25 a year ago. The steep increase in potato prices was attributed to a 20% drop in arrivals, with poor yields caused by late blight infestations in key producing states, including Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat.

A typical Indian vegetarian meal includes roti, vegetables (potato, tomato), rice, dal, curd, and salad. The non-vegetarian meal replaces dal with broiler chicken. Despite fluctuating commodity prices, the proportion of ingredients used to calculate these prices remains constant.

Meanwhile, pulse prices climbed 10% year-on-year, driven by tight opening stocks and limited pipeline availability. Crisil expects some relief in December as fresh arrivals hit the market. Vegetable oil prices also rose 13% year-on-year, driven by an import duty hike and increased seasonal demand during the festival and wedding season.

Fuel costs provided a rare reprieve. The price of a 14.2 kg LPG cylinder in Delhi fell 11% to ₹803 in November from ₹903 a year earlier, helping to partially offset rising food costs.

On a monthly basis, the cost of a vegetarian thali fell 2% in November, thanks to a 17% drop in tomato prices as fresh supplies from Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat replenished the market. However, this was tempered by increases in the prices of onions, vegetable oil, and potatoes, which rose 4%, 4%, and 1%, respectively.

For non-vegetarian meals, a 3% year-on-year drop in broiler chicken prices provided relief, keeping the overall thali cost steady month-on-month, despite a 2% rise in broiler prices in November.

Inflation and household impact

Food inflation continues to strain household budgets. India’s retail inflation climbed to 6.21% in October, up from 5.49% the previous month, marking its highest level since August 2023's 6.83%.

Rising thali costs illustrate the direct impact of food inflation on household spending, with the average cost of preparing a meal serving as a key barometer.

While inflation in India, Asia’s third-largest economy, has trended lower over the past year, volatile food prices remain a persistent concern. The recent surge in thali costs highlights these worries, particularly as external factors such as Middle East tensions and port strikes amplify the risk of commodity price spikes.