Donald Trump tariffs: Why US citizens worry about future coffee and vanilla supply in their kitchens — explained

United States President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements have wrecked havoc on the global markets, affecting equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Amid these developments, many US consumers are concerned about the potential impact on their daily kitchen staples, particularly coffee and vanilla. 

Many are especially concerned about coffee and vanilla supplies in the US, given the significantly high tariff rates imposed on the trading nations — 46 per cent on Vietnam and 47 per cent on Madagascar, respectively.

Can't the US Grow its Own Vanilla and Coffee?

Madagascar, on which the US has imposed a 47 per cent tariff, produces close to 80 per cent of the world's vanilla supplies. The bulk of the US coffee imports come from Vietnam.

But, you may ask, can't the US grow its own vanilla and coffee? The short answer is no. The longer answer is that while it could grow some, these quantities would never be enough to meet demand.

Scientist Simon Maechling explained on X (formerly known as Twitter), “You cannot grow coffee and vanilla in the US. Vanilla takes 3 years to flower, 9 months per pod, needs hand pollination. Coffee needs 3–4 years to yield beans.”

Besides the time and effort required to grow vanilla and coffee crops, the US also lacks another important factor — weather. Maechling added: “Both demand tropical heat and humidity. Not hype — just reality.”

Notably, one user in Maechling's comments sought additional information from Grok AI, asking if there are any coffee and vanilla producers in the US. To which the AI model replied: “Yes, coffee and vanilla are grown in the US Coffee thrives in Hawaii (Kona), California, and Puerto Rico, with Hawaii producing ~11.5 million pounds (49.89 lakh kg) yearly. Vanilla is cultivated in Hawaii as a specialty crop, with research expanding it in Florida. Despite claims they can’t grow here due to climate, these regions prove otherwise on a small scale.”

Growing Domestic Coffee, Vanilla: Impossible or Logistically Unfeasible?

When further questioned on whether supply from domestic US producers could meet US consumer demand for vanilla and coffee, Grok replied: “Coffee and vanilla can’t be grown in the US at a scale to meet national demand. The US consumes 3.5B lbs of coffee yearly, but produces only ~11.5M lbs, mostly in Hawaii—less than 0.4%. Vanilla imports are ~7.66M lbs, with domestic output likely in the thousands, mainly from Hawaii and Florida. Both need tropical climates and, for vanilla, labor-intensive pollination, limiting large-scale US production. Imports are essential.”

On further prompting, it added: “It's not impossible, just currently unfeasible. The US could theoretically grow coffee and vanilla with tech like advanced greenhouses, but climate, labor costs, and scale make it impractical now. Future innovations might change this, but not soon.”

Who Could Gain From Madagascar and Vietnam's Pain?

There are two likely winners here, and they are not domestic US producers. For coffee, Brazil is the most likely winner. While Vietnam (supplying robusta coffee) faces 46 per cent tariffs on all imports to the US and could likely see demand fall due to the resultant price hike, Brazil has “gotten away” with a comparatively lower 10 per cent tariff. It is also already the second largest supplier of coffee (arabica) to the US after the Southeast Asian country.

For vanilla, the European Union could take over the mantle from Madagascar, according to a report by Irish publication The Journal.

This is not because the EU grows vanilla but by using simple trade. The EU has a minimum 20 per cent blanket tariff on all exports to the US, well below the 47 per cent imposed on Madagascar. The report noted that in the future, the US may find it cheaper to import vanilla from Europe — which will, in turn, buy its stock from Madagascar!

“In that sense, European countries could make the tariffs work for them,” the report said. Brian Malone of Dublin Spice Company told the publication that they already buy 50-150kg of vanilla at a time from Papua New Guinea and sell it to France, Germany, and the Netherlands. A similar plan could work with the US.