Ajay Bagga warns ‘big’ transition will ‘haunt international relations for a long time to come’. What are his concerns?

Ace investor Ajay Bagga has shared his opinion on the likely global trade war triggered by the President Donald Trump-led United States government, noting that “a big change is happening in international relations” which will have lasting impact on global diplomacy.

While Ajay Bagga did not explicitly name the US or Donald Trump, the reference were implied. Notably, the post came after the US announced a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports, aiming to promote domestic manufacturing.

Ajay Bagga pointed to seven key developments that highlight what he called "the time of transition" in the way that global diplomacy and trade functions.

‘Big Change, Global Democratic Institutions Undermined, Trust Broken’

Writing a long post on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Ajay Bagga said, “A big change is happening in International Relations”.

He outlined these in seven points, the first being use of “intemperate language” in official diplomatic exchanges — “something that has not happened for hundreds of years,” he said.

Next he noted that trust is being eroded, stating: “To be a Deal Maker, you have to build the Trust in counter parties, that you are a Deal Keeper. That basic tenet is being flouted on a daily basis. Deals made in 2020 are being consigned to the dustbin and fresh Deal Making is being undertaken in this charged atmosphere. (sic)”

He also called out the “might is right” school of thought for underminining global democratic institutions. He also called it a “non-rules-based international order”.

Ajay Bagga: ‘New Leaders, Alliances Will Emerge’

Ajay Bagga further predicted the emergence of a new world order, stating: “New leaders and new alliances will emerge, to protect small states and small population countries, from the over reach by the large powers, to avoid a “Spheres of Influence” 19th century like “carve out” of the world between major powers. (sic)”

He believes that during this transition, “virtual walls are rising” between erstwhile allies with a principled, rules based order established post 1945. He also noted th lack of alternatives while the current status quo is being destroyed.

‘Loss of Moral High Ground Will Haunt International Relations for Long Time’

“This vacuum will get filled up, as it always does. Countries will have to tread carefully and protect their national interests, and seek strength in forming new alliances. The loss of a moral high ground, of an ethical basis, is much more permanent, then what global leaders are envisioning right now. It will haunt international relations for a long time to come,” Ajay Bagga predicted.

He further added that nation states have the “objective, mission and endeavour” to work towards “strength, peace, prosperity and security”, but “these are being challenged, and the time of transition will throw up further challenges, till a new international structure evolves”.