D-Street Ahead: How will Indian stock market move next week? Key technical calls for Nifty, Sensex

D-Street Ahead: The Indian stock market gained for the third consecutive week, registering more than one per cent gains amid sustained foreign fund inflows and robust corporate earnings. The market was buoyed by optimism the potential India-US trade deal and record high GST collection in April 2025.

Foreign portfolio investment stayed consistent. Overseas investors bought Indian equities for 11 straight sessions through Wednesday — the longest such streak in two years. They turned net buyers in April after three months of outflows.

Indian stock market's performance last week

After an initial surge, the benchmarks traded in a narrow range throughout the week but managed to close higher with positive bias. The Nifty rose 1.3 per cent this week to settle at at 24,346.7 while the Sensex added 1.6 per cent to close at 80,501.99.

Sectorally, the oil & gas index led the gains, advancing 4.38 per cent over the week, while the media sector lagged, declining by 1.71 per cent. Continued buying seen in the Realty sector that stood out as key driver. The auto, IT, pharma, and Energy sectors also posted gains. Broader markets mirrored the trend, closing flat to marginally lower amid intra-week volatility and swings.

Sensex, Nifty, and Bank Nifty technical levels to watch

The Nifty continued it’s upwards rally for the third straight week which has been almost a vertical rise. D-Street analysts say the possibility of some consolidation can not be ruled out before the next major directional move.

Nifty hovered between 24,000 to 24,600 while it will be crucial to hold the 23,800 level downside to maintain its bullish tone; a breach could lead to extended profit-taking, with the next major support near 23,400—where key moving averages such as 20- day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs still supporting upside," said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. “On the flip side, a decisive breakout above 24,400 on the closing basis could re-ignite bullish momentum, potentially propelling the index toward the 24,800 mark.”

Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group said, “On the technical front, the indices remained well-supported above a cluster of key moving averages, with a bullish crossover between the 21- and 55-day EMAs reinforcing positive momentum.”

Nifty 50 is continuously trading above the key psychological level of 24,000, a significant technical barrier. Also, it trades above the 21-day, 55-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, suggesting sustained bullish momentum.

"Gains were fueled by strong performance in banking stocks. The RSI remaining above the 14-day SMA indicates ongoing strength. Immediate support levels are placed at 24,000 and 23,700 which also align with the 22DEMA. On the upside, resistance is seen at 24,600, and a move above this may open the path toward 25,000," said Singhania.

According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, “Bank Nifty continues to show consolidation after a vertical rise while supporting relative strength, above key moving averages even after profit booking of the initial rise.”

“While some consolidation may be seen in the banking index, the broader tone remains optimistic. After a sideways move, in case we see further correction near 52,800-53,700 levels, buying interest is expected to emerge with an upside potential toward 55,500–57,000,” said Mishra.

According to Singhania, Bank Nifty extended its uptrend with a 0.83 per cent gain, closing above the psychological 55,000 mark and just below its all-time high. A breakout above the long-term trendline confirms bullish strength, supported by the index holding firmly above its 21-DEMA and 55-DEMA.

“A move above last week’s high which is near the 56100 mark could open the door to new all time highs. Heavyweights like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank continue to lead the rally. On the downside, 54,100 is immediate support; a breach may trigger a slide to 53,400,” he said.

D-Street trading strategy for next week

Looking at the present scenario, Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking advises to maintain a positive approach with “buy on dips” strategy and a preference for hedged positions in the index. “Selective stock-picking opportunities continue to emerge with sector specific preferences. Hence, the focus should be on identifying stocks with favorable risk-reward setups,” he said.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.